UK–Somalia trade has jumped. Now comes the hard part: turning a one-way surge into a two-way partnership
It’s not often that trade data between two countries separated by nearly 7,000 kilometers makes you sit up. But the United Kingdom’s latest figures with Somalia do just that. In the four quarters to the end of Q1 2025, total trade in goods and services reached £72 million—up 75.6% from a year earlier, according to a UK Department for Business and Trade factsheet released on September 19, 2025. On the face of it, that’s a barnstorming year.
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Look closer, and the shape of that growth tells a more complicated story. British exports to Somalia surged to £61 million, a 144% leap. Imports in the other direction fell 31.3% to £11 million. The result: a £50 million surplus for the UK, and a relationship that is accelerating—but lopsided.
What’s driving the UK surge
The export list hints at the story behind the numbers: scientific instruments, medicinal and pharmaceutical products, and a range of manufactured goods. For a country still emerging from decades of conflict, where reconstruction is not a metaphor but a daily task, such imports are more than line items. They’re inputs to life: diagnostic devices for clinics; medicines for chronic care; equipment to keep water clean and small factories running. In the practical business of building a modern state, these are essentials.
Anyone who’s walked through the wholesale markets of Mogadishu, the port at Bosaso, or the cargo wing in Hargeisa knows how quickly Somali traders can adapt when demand is real and supply chains are predictable. Digital payments are nearly ubiquitous, and a young population is hungry for skills and work. In that sense, the UK’s export boom is a vote of confidence in Somalia’s capacity to absorb capital goods and move forward.
But trade works best when it flows both ways. And here, the numbers are unambiguous: the UK is selling much more to Somalia than it is buying from it. That’s not just a statistical quirk; it’s a signal.
What’s missing from the Somali side
Somalia’s export story—livestock, fish, hides and skins, frankincense and myrrh—remains more promise than presence on British shelves. Those who know the Somali diaspora in London’s Tower Hamlets or Birmingham’s Small Heath will find the scents of frankincense and the sight of canned tuna familiar. But these are still niche products, not mainstream volumes. If the UK market is a high wall, Somali producers are still building the ladder.
Three frictions loom large:
- Standards and certification: Getting fish or meat into the UK is not just about catching or processing it. It’s cold chains, sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) certification, traceability, labeling—costly and technical steps where small producers need help.
- Finance and insurance: The cost of finance for Somali exporters remains high, and many banks in the UK have, for years, been cautious with Somali-linked transactions. The de-risking that narrowed remittance channels a decade ago still shades investor confidence today.
- Logistics and geopolitics: With shipping routes through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden periodically disrupted, freight insurance and transit times have become unpredictable—especially for perishables like seafood.
Then there’s investment—or the lack of it. UK foreign direct investment stock in Somalia was less than £500,000 at the end of 2023, essentially a rounding error. Without longer-term capital, it’s difficult for Somali firms to scale from cottage industries to export-ready enterprises. Ports need upgrades, processing plants need modern equipment, and labs must test to international specifications. That takes money and patience.
A moment that could reset the relationship
Somalia’s entry into the East African Community in 2023 opens up new regulatory pathways and regional value chains. A tuna boat off Kismayo can send its catch to a processing line in Mombasa for certification before shipping to Europe. A livestock health corridor connecting Somali ranchers to veterinary services in the region can standardize quality quickly. The region is building connective tissue; the UK, post-Brexit, is still refining its own trade posture in Africa. That’s a match worth working on.
There is also a human foundation to build on. Somali communities in the UK—stretching from Bristol’s Easton to Cardiff’s Butetown—are natural bridges for commerce, language, and trust. Remittances from diaspora households still send over a billion dollars a year back to Somalia, a lifeline that often eclipses aid in both scale and agility. Imagine channeling even a fraction of that into structured investment vehicles for export businesses, backed by risk-sharing from British development finance institutions.
What each side can do next
If both capitals want to turn a one-way surge into a two-way street, they have options. None are easy. Most are doable.
- Make investment possible: Somalia can accelerate legal and regulatory reforms that protect property rights, strengthen commercial courts, and reinforce a predictable tax regime. Investors want to know how disputes are resolved before they wire funds.
- Lower the technical barriers: The UK can expand technical assistance for Somali producers to meet UK standards, from HACCP in fish processing to traceability systems for livestock. Peer-to-peer programs that embed UK experts in Somali factories for months—not days—work best.
- Mobilize finance: British International Investment and UK Export Finance can pilot risk-sharing instruments tailored to frontier markets. Even limited cover for Somali buyers and exporters would change bank behavior in both countries.
- Bet on clusters: Focus on two or three export clusters with a clear path to scale—seafood from the Indian Ocean, essential oils and resins, halal-certified livestock byproducts. Build them to win one certification at a time.
- Leverage the diaspora: Support Somali-British SMEs with co-investment and mentorship. When Somali entrepreneurs crack UK retail—whether through ethnic aisles or mainstream chains—volumes can multiply fast.
Beyond the spreadsheet: culture, trust, and time
Trade statistics are the skeleton; relationships are the flesh. A Somali proverb says, “Gacmo wadajir bay wax ku gooyaan”—hands joined together can cut through anything. It is a reminder that partnership, not patronage, drives durable growth. If the UK is only a supplier and Somalia only a buyer, the current surge will plateau. If Somalia becomes a reliable exporter of what it is good at—fish, resins, leather, and, increasingly, digital services—the curve bends differently.
Two questions shape the path forward. First, what would balance look like by, say, 2030? Not perfect symmetry, but a plausible share of UK imports from Somalia. Getting from £11 million to £50 million in five years isn’t crazy; it just requires coordinated improvements in standards, logistics, and finance.
Second, what role can big trends play? Climate change is nudging fish stocks and reshaping coastal livelihoods along the Somali littoral. Ethical sourcing is no longer a fad in UK retail; it’s a consumer expectation. Could British labs partner with Somali harvesters to certify frankincense oils for the health and cosmetics sectors? Could UK buyers commit to offtake agreements that kick-start investment in Somali cold-chain infrastructure?
None of this minimizes real risks—security, governance, the vagaries of regional politics. But the risk of staying stuck in a one-sided pattern is also real. A trade relationship that only moves British goods into Somalia will not, on its own, build Somali resilience or long-term UK opportunities.
The £72 million headline is a welcome sign of life. The £50 million surplus tells us the work ahead. If both governments and their private sectors choose to put muscle behind standards, finance, and trust, the next factsheet could read differently: not just more trade, but better trade—brisk, balanced, and anchored in shared prosperity.
As the proverb reminds us, hands joined can cut through anything. Now is the time to grasp, and pull together.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
