Regional Perspectives: Is Ethiopia’s Federal Model Suitable for Somalia?
When considering federalism in the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia’s approach often becomes the focal point. Its ethnically focused system has sparked debates across neighboring countries, particularly Somalia, where federalism has added layers of complexity to its political terrain.
A Glimpse into Ethiopia’s Federalism
Established in 1995, Ethiopia’s system divides the nation into ethnolinguistic regions. Each possesses its constitution, president, and parliament, granting autonomy in language, education, and governance. Notably, Article 39 of their constitution permits regions the right to secede.
This framework aimed to empower historically marginalized groups but has also led to political fragmentation and inter-regional tensions.
Somalia’s Complexity: Why Ethiopia’s Model May Not Fit
In Somalia, the divisions are not based on ethnicity but clans, leading to several challenges in adopting Ethiopia’s system:
- Clan Mobility: Somali clans, like those in the divided city of Galkayo, often span multiple regions, complicating territorial negotiations. The ongoing conflict in areas like SSC Khatumo reflects these challenges.
- Risk of Fragmentation: Ethiopia’s model has encouraged secessionist sentiments, a dangerous precedent for a Somalia still grappling with unity issues.
- Central Weakness: Excessive autonomy for federal member states has hampered national cohesion. Rivalries, such as those between the Federal Government and regions like Jubaland and Northeastern State, illustrate this tension.
Foreign Involvement: A Double-Edged Sword
Foreign actors have significantly influenced Somalia’s political and security landscape, leaving mixed results. The geopolitics and historical stakes in this region have sparked unease about a strong Somali state.
Consider some criticisms:
- Federalism as an Imposed Model: Many believe that federalism in Somalia was externally imposed, furthering confusion and resistance in some locales.
- Strategic Resources: Somalia’s coastline and Exclusive Economic Zone offer vast resources. Neighbors may fear a strong Somalia dominating regional trade and resources.
- Counterterrorism Rivalries: Nations like Ethiopia and Kenya cite Al-Shabab threats to justify interference in Somalia’s affairs.
- Proxy Influence: Internal divisions allow neighboring countries to support factions aligned with their interests, thereby maintaining a divided Somalia.
- Port Competition: Key ports like Berbera and Mogadishu could challenge regional trade hubs, unsettling countries like Dubai, and Mombasa.
- Aid Dynamics: A stable Somalia could attract direct investments, potentially shifting priorities away from other regional states.
Where Somalia’s Federal Experiment Misses the Mark
Experiments with federalism in Somalia have revealed several critical pain points:
- Constitutional Ambiguity: The 2012 Provisional Constitution leaves much undefined, leading to disputes and inconsistent rule applications.
- Clans and Territories: Federal units have been crafted around clan power bases rather than strong administrative boundaries, leading to fragmentation.
- Security Fragmentation: Diverse militias and regional forces operate outside central control, creating a tapestry of governance without coherence.
- Fiscal Disputes: Revenue sharing is inconsistent, and heavy donor dependence fuels friction between government layers.
- Political Fragmentation: The existence of competing claims and new member states ignite tensions between Mogadishu and regional capitals.
- External Influences: Foreign entities sometimes bypass central authorities, altering balances of power and complicating security arrangements.
- Weak Institutions: Without robust institutions and genuine local democracy, federalism becomes a tool for elite power rather than public service.
The Path Forward: Homegrown Solutions
Somalia could benefit more from a context-sensitive system that accommodates clan dynamics and fosters inclusivity without replicating Ethiopia’s blueprint. This needs a reevaluation of political strategy, transcending clan divisions to reinforce the nation-state while honoring Somali values.
Key steps should include:
- Strengthening regional governance without jeopardizing central authority.
- Nurturing institutions that serve citizens rather than perpetuate divisions.
- Building a shared national identity that respects local identities.
Which Path Should Somalia Choose?
Reflecting on other global models, Somalia faces a choice:
- The U.S. Model of Federalism: This approach grants regional states significant autonomy while ensuring responsibilities and powers are clearly defined, eliminating overlaps.
- Decentralized Regions: Returning to the old system of 18 regions with full autonomy might be suitable. Here, local governance should be determined internally without central interference.
Recognizing Somalia’s rich heritage and its potential for change requires introspection. As the saying goes, “He does not change a nation unless the nation changes itself.” To rise above clan division and build a unified state, Somalia stands at a crossroads with the opportunity to decide its path forward.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
