In Africa, Modest Hopes and Uncertain Prospects for a Trump Reelection

ABUJA, Nigeria (AP) — Following Donald Trump’s election, African leaders expressed enthusiasm about forging stronger partnerships with the United States. However, many remain skeptical that his presidency will significantly impact the continent’s 1.4 billion-strong population.

After Trump clinched victory, Kenya’s William Ruto affirmed readiness to enhance relations with Washington, while Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu looked forward to “earnest and mutually rewarding” collaborations.

Despite these greetings, whispers abound that African nations, the ones Trump once derided with less-than-complimentary descriptions, barely feature on his agenda. The question lingers: are they of low priority or not even a blip on the radar?

“For ages, U.S. foreign policy hasn’t put Africa front and center,” shared Charles Ray, guiding the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Africa Program. The continent is often viewed through the lens of contesting global rivals like Russia and China. President Biden once spoke of Africa as a key collaboration partner, noted Ray, previously ambassador to Zimbabwe. However, lofty rhetoric has arguably led to minimal action.

Ray pointedly remarked that Africa might find itself “at the very bottom of Trump’s list” of priorities. Any moves involving the continent are anticipated to resonate with his “self-serving, transactional approach.” Trump’s “America First” strategy won’t be music to Africa’s ears, opine numerous experts.

Murithi Mutiga, steering African activities at the Crisis Group, observed that the president-elect is a committed isolationist, seemingly poised to retract from global involvements.

Contracts could still be hammered out, even in Africa. J. Peter Pham, who previously navigated Trump’s envoy duties across the Great Lakes and Sahel, speculated that a new Trump term might chase “win-win” opportunities. Possibilities include renewing the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which opens U.S. markets to eligible African nations. This was hinted at in a Voice of America session. Still, questions from U.S. lawmakers persist about whether African nations uphold the terms, or sidetrack U.S. foreign policy and security interests.

In 2023, U.S. Ambassador Reuben Brigety pointed accusatory fingers at South Africa, one of the scheme’s biggest benefactors, for allegedly supplying arms to Russia and questioned its neutrality over the Ukraine conflict.

“You can’t just punch Uncle Sam in the jaw and expect all to remain rosy,” noted Pham. Ray, from the Foreign Policy Research Institute, warned that nations committing such faux pas “will find themselves as global pariahs.”

Africa contends with multifaceted crises. A looming threat under a new Trump reign is the possibility of slashed funding—a cut that could drastically affect millions of young women and girls relying on U.S.-bolstered reproductive health services.

Valentine Damitoni, a young mother from Zimbabwe, stressed, “Conditions are dire already for girls, and without these programs, it could pivot to a catastrophe.”

Frequenting a Harare clinic, Thus, she’s empowered to continue schooling without fearing another pregnancy, thanks to U.S. support.

In Project 2025—a detailed agenda by the Heritage Foundation for reshaping federal governance—Max Primorac criticized the U.S. Agency for International Development, America’s prominent donor arm to Africa. He pointed fingers at some programs for allegedly “promoting extreme climate ideas and addressing perceived systemic racism,” which align closely with Trump’s laurels, albeit he’s distanced from it.

Kiron Skinner, formerly helming the State Department’s policy planning under Trump, recommended in the project document that Africa’s focus ought to be on core security and economic issues, rather than pushing “radical social agendas.”

Meanwhile, Africa experiences a power reorientation. The destabilized Sahel sees military leaders ousting elected figures, basking in anti-Western sentiments, and pivoting relations away from traditional allies like the U.S. Russia’s role on the continent continues to grow, as does China’s, often viewing African nations through mutually beneficial lenses without deeply delving into their politics—the former supplying arms, the latter dabbling in infrastructural loans.

“Traditionally, the West saw Africa as a problem to solve; China and others saw opportunity,” noted Mutiga.

Despite Biden’s administration pledging over $22bn to Africa last year, skeptics question whether Trump’s potential return might see key U.S. health and development projects vanish into thin air, especially amidst intensifying hunger and democratic backslides.

For many Africans, Trump feels like an enigmatic specter. “Trump isn’t fixing our hunger issues,” declared Isah Mohammed, a fruit vendor in Abuja.

In North Africa, Trump’s win kindled hope in Morocco. Its press eagerly anticipated his return might bolster recognition of its sovereignty over Western Sahara.

As part of a deal inclusive of Morocco’s diplomatic ties with Israel, Trump recognized Morocco’s territorial claims before his White House exit in 2020.

While Biden has yet to back-pedal this decision, nor speed up the promised consulate construction there, the Horn of Africa grapples with rising instability—from wars to bruised alliances.

In Somalia, the Trump blueprint might mean funding reductions, predicted Rashid Abdi, a Nairobi-based research analyst.

Reflecting on Africa’s inertia, some say the challenge is internal. The G20 inclusion, recognizing African unity, remains a testament to potential but hasn’t delivered desired results.

“What is Africa’s role in all this?” pondered Mutiga.

“In a transactional global arena, Africa must fashion its interest; otherwise, its value will merely be molded by external geopolitics,” he concluded.

Edited by: Ali Musa

alimusa@axadletimes.com

Axadle international–Monitoring