This week’s assembly in Budapest starkly encapsulated the prevailing anxiety stirring within Europe, especially as Donald Trump celebrated a striking victory back in the United States.
The significance of the timing and setting cannot be overstated.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, uniquely among EU leaders, has embraced Trump’s controversial approach to politics, reveling in the attention. He hailed Trump’s victory as a “triumph for global harmony,” asserting it would alter Europe’s stance on Ukraine.
Orbán’s delight reached new heights as Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition imploded in Germany, while France simultaneously grapples with its own dysfunction, with President Macron struggling to assert European leadership.
Yet, there’s a palpable urgency among European leaders to frame the narrative before Trump settles into the Oval Office.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán described Trump’s win as a “triumph for global harmony.”
The narrative they seek to project emphasizes the importance of a robust transatlantic alliance—economically and security-wise—that’s crucial for the incoming president, particularly regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Both European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO’s Secretary General Mark Rutte expressed optimism about collaborating with Trump in the past. Rutte even commended Trump for successfully pressing NATO allies to elevate their defense budgets beyond the 2% GDP guideline—a move largely motivated by Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
However, behind this diplomatic smooth talk lies a genuine trepidation about the implications of a Trump presidency returning to the White House.
The Republican has issued warnings about imposing 10% tariffs on European goods and hinted at reducing support for Ukraine. Additionally, he might consider lifting sanctions on the Kremlin and distancing the U.S. from NATO, leaving Ukraine vulnerable to further Russian offensives.
Given the current economic landscape, it’s an unfortunate moment for the EU to face potential tariffs, which could also disrupt trade relations with China. Should Trump opt for a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, it might lead to a surge of Chinese goods flowing into Europe. This scenario could exacerbate the crisis if Russia strengthens its hold in Ukraine, potentially unleashing another wave of refugees across Europe.
Ursula von der Leyen stated that the U.S. and Europe must “forge a partnership across the Atlantic.”
Moreover, the institutions within the EU find themselves in a transitional phase. Von der Leyen is nearing the end of her inaugural term, while the new commissioners are awaiting the European Parliament’s approval.
Goldman Sachs recently revised its Eurozone growth forecast for 2025 downward, from 1.1% to 0.8%. This adjustment came even before the election, driven solely by limited tariffs—not the full 10% Trump might impose.
Even before the U.S. election results, Europe was grappling with sluggish growth and a waning edge in competitiveness. This period is marked by uncertainty and concern.
Amidst this backdrop, a narrative of European unity has emerged, often conveyed through press conferences in Budapest.
“We’ve demonstrated Europe’s capacity for responsibility by standing together,” emphasized Von der Leyen.
“Together, we weathered the economic fallout from the pandemic and navigated the severe energy crisis precipitated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
Before heading back to dissolve the Dáil, Taoiseach Simon Harris stressed that Europe’s “strategic autonomy” has never been more crucial:
“It’s vital that we control what we can here in Europe, as no other region owes us a living,” mused the Taoiseach.
A significant aspect of Europe’s strategy is ensuring Ukraine remains free from Russian dominance.
Yet, Orbán warned that Trump’s victory may lead to a diminished European commitment to Ukraine.
“The Americans are likely to withdraw from this conflict,” he shared with Hungarian state radio.
The war in Ukraine remains pivotal in discussions between the EU and the U.S.
None are more acutely aware of this than Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, who expressed skepticism regarding Orbán’s and the Kremlin’s notion of “peace.” Zelensky argued that discussions of a ceasefire were “irresponsible” and could undermine Ukraine’s security.
“What’s next?” he pressed, referencing North Korean troops assisting Russia in inflicting harm on civilians in Europe.
“Should Europe seek favors from [North Korean leader] Kim Jong Un, hoping he too will strive for peace in Europe?”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky labeled ceasefire talks as ‘irresponsible.’
Europe now stands at a perilous juncture, faced with the potential withdrawal of U.S. military support for Ukraine. This situation is complicated by the influence of right-wing sympathizers of Russia, like Orbán, coupled with a fragile economic situation.
However, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo dismissed the notion that Europe is powerless without American defense support.
“More than half of the military assistance for Ukraine is already being provided by European nations,” he asserted, countering the idea that U.S. support is the only route for Ukraine’s defense.
“Whether we escalate our support or maintain a collective effort is yet to be determined. We have two months to strategize.”
Even if Trump’s more extreme campaign pledges don’t come to fruition, this may be an awakening for Europe to bolster its defense capabilities, a dream championed by leaders like Poland’s Donald Tusk. The reality, however, is that the EU will find it challenging to navigate this landscape.
“The prospect of an accelerated shift in U.S. security focus away from Europe is daunting, even for those advocating for greater European strategic independence,” remarks Ian Lesser, a distinguished fellow at the German Marshall Fund.
“This aspiration, however, remains largely unfulfilled. Europe is years away from compensating for changes in American defense posture and credibility.”
Donald Trump has long expressed admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
With Russian forces gaining ground in Ukraine, calls for Kyiv to moderate its ambitions regarding expelling all Russian troops are rising, even beyond the pro-Trump circle.
“The U.S. should still define victory as Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence, free to pursue whatever alliances it chooses,” suggested Richard N. Haass in Foreign Affairs. “However, it would be wise to abandon the notion that full liberation of Ukrainian lands is an absolute necessity for victory. Therefore, as the U.S. and its allies continue to support Ukraine militarily, they must encourage Kyiv to initiate negotiations with the Kremlin and clearly outline the process.”
This suggests that Trump may indeed find room to urge Ukraine towards difficult compromises.
Notably, the president-elect seems to harbor skepticism towards Ukraine, viewing its conflict as a drain on U.S. finances and military resources, insinuating that Europeans should manage the situation themselves.
Trump has consistently admired Putin and entertained the idea of striking a deal with the Russian leader to swiftly resolve the conflict.
His Vice-President-elect JD Vance has similarly shown little regard for Ukraine’s future.
Nevertheless, various factions—some hawkish and others more moderate—will vie for Trump’s ear.
The Wall Street Journal recently highlighted insights from three members of Trump’s team, who proposed a typically transactional framework for resolving the conflict. One suggestion is to freeze the war along current territorial lines, with Russia retaining control over 20% of Ukraine, in exchange for Ukraine’s pledge to refrain from joining NATO for at least two decades, coupled with ongoing U.S. military support.
A 1,300-kilometer demilitarized zone would be supervised by European forces.
“We won’t be deploying American forces to maintain peace in Ukraine,” one team member commented, adding: “We’re not footing the bill. The Poles, Germans, British, and French should step in.”
In contrast, Trump’s former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, thought to be a potential candidate for Defense Secretary, has maintained that Trump would not abandon Ukraine.
He has advocated for tightening sanctions on Russia, scaling up U.S. arms production, reinforcing NATO, establishing a $500 billion lend-lease program for Ukraine, and lifting restrictions on the types of weapons Ukraine can access.
Stephen Kotkin, a leading historian on Russia, adopts a more cautious stance: “While it may end worse for Ukraine, it could also turn out better. The unpredictability of Trump extends even to his actions and decisions.”
However, he cautioned that Ukraine cannot engage in negotiations without giving Putin a compelling reason to do so.
“The crux of the issue lies in the insufficient political pressure on Putin’s regime,” Kotkin notes.
In summary, Europe’s choices seem limited.
As Célia Belin of the European Council on Foreign Relations points out, Europeans may try to gain favor in Washington, positioning themselves as the preferred European ally of the president, possibly at the expense of their fellow EU members.
This might lead to a series of transactional bargains—exchanging security guarantees for weapon purchases, or aligning on U.S. policy towards China, hoping for reciprocal support regarding Russia.
Yet, Belin warns, a transactional alliance is always fleeting.
For genuine stability in both economic and security contexts, Europe needs to devise a robust strategy for engaging with the U.S. under a Trump administration.
However, crafting such a cohesive plan has historically proven challenging for the EU.
France has always been cautious of too intimate ties, advocating for member states to opt for European (read: French) arms over American alternatives.
Moreover, Trump’s burgeoning band of populist and far-right allies across Europe, whether in government or opposition, threaten to undermine a unified stance in support of Ukraine.
Simultaneously, the U.S. president-elect will likely court European far-right parties, including Germany’s AfD, which is set to contest elections next year.
This positions Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, a hard-right prime minister closely aligned with the MAGA ethos yet also a staunch supporter of Ukraine, as a crucial intermediary for Europe.
“The possibility of peace today exists because Ukraine has exhibited remarkable bravery and the West has extended its support,” she commented in Budapest. “We are closely monitoring the situation as it evolves. As long as the war continues, Italy will stand with Ukraine.”
The lead-up to the Trump administration’s inauguration promises crucial developments, especially regarding the battlefield outcomes in Ukraine. With the majority of Americans rallying behind Trump’s victory, how he navigates that mandate will undoubtedly ripple through Europe.
Edited by: Ali Musa
alimusa@axadletimes.com
Axadle international–Monitoring
