Mogadishu (AX) — Egypt and Sudan are fiercely opposed to the newly approved Nile River Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), signaling a fresh chapter in a longstanding dispute over precious water resources. Ratified by six countries upstream, the CFA came into effect on October 13, further widening the gulf among Nile Basin nations.
Cairo and Khartoum, long heavyweights in debates over Nile waters, released a stern joint statement after convening the Egyptian-Sudanese Permanent Joint Technical Commission for the Nile Waters (PJTC) in Cairo, October 11-12. Their message? The CFA’s ratification puts the region’s equilibrium at risk. They urged a return to the 1999 Nile Basin Initiative, pushing for an all-inclusive framework to prevent unilateral actions by upstream states. “The six-state commission built on the unfinished CFA can’t represent the interests of the whole Nile Basin,” declared the statement.
The statement highlighted inadequacies of the new six-member Nile River Basin Commission born from the CFA. “This accord doesn’t speak for the entire Nile Basin,” the PJTC asserted, casting doubt on the legitimacy of this new organization.
With Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda endorsing the CFA, regional strain escalates. Although the deal aims to create a commission for equitable water distribution throughout the basin, Egypt and Sudan’s chief gripe remains unchanged. The CFA challenges old water rights secured through the Nile Water Agreements of 1929 and 1959, still binding under international regulations, favoring Egypt and Sudan.
Egypt’s strident rejection of the CFA isn’t surprising, considering its heavy reliance on the Nile for almost all its water. President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, at the Cairo Water Week shindig, hammered home how vital water remains for Egypt. “Not a drop can be spared,” he remarked, while highlighting national worries over Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam—a behemoth hydropower project, symbolic of modern aspirations. This structure looms large as an existential threat for Egypt and Sudan, imperiling their historical control over the river.
The CFA’s favor with upstream states like Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Kenya stirs an avalanche of political and geopolitical tremors. Ethiopia perceives the agreement and the dam as key to its economic advancement. Conversely, Egypt is strengthening ties with African allies such as Somalia to counter Ethiopian sway.
On the flip side, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has dubbed the CFA’s ratification a monumental step towards sharing the Nile’s wealth more equally. “Together, we envision a sustainable future that serves all Nile Basin states,” Abiy noted earlier this year, though his optimistic tone falls short of assuaging downstream concerns.
Geopolitical ripples from this Nile water tiff are unmistakable. In August, a Cairo-Mogadishu military pact emerged, designed to curb Ethiopia’s influence in the Horn of Africa. Somalia has warmly accepted Egypt’s proposition to send peacekeepers under the African Union Mission to Support Stabilization in Somalia (AUSSOM), which will take over from the waning ATMIS mission in December.
This comes after a trilateral convocation in Asmara, Eritrea, where Somali, Egyptian, and Eritrean leaders vowed to tighten security ties. Egypt’s increasing military role in Somalia, arms deliveries included, is perceived as countering Ethiopia’s regional clout, particularly in the wake of Ethiopia’s agreement to access North Western State of Somalia’s coastlines for a naval base. Ethiopia worries that Egypt’s activities in Somalia might instigate regional instability and jeopardize its strategic interests, encompassing Red Sea access and Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’s prospects.
Edited by: Ali Musa
alimusa@axadletimes.com
Axadle international–Monitoring
