VERIFICATION: Circulating Posts in Ethiopia Spread Misleading Information About Horn of Africa Tensions

A Facebook post, emerging on September 18, 2024, surpassed viral status with over 800 shares. It flaunts a TikTok video captioned in Amharic, suggesting: “Abiy is bursting with joy.”

The name “Abiy” references Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed.

Meanwhile, the caption hints at Egypt being “wrecked.”

“Ethiopia’s foes are in a panic,” the video narrator claims. “Rumors swirling from Beijing—Xi Jinping’s domain—suggest Ethiopia’s got its hands on the elusive J10 fighter jet.” This aircraft is notable for slipping past radar detection.

The video stitches together snippets of various fighter jets, military gear, shots of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, and aerial glimpses of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

A snapshot from this misleading post was captured on September 24, 2024.

The narrator further reveals, “Upon hearing the formidable news, Egypt’s plans to snag a fierce jet for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam went into a tailspin.”

Another bold claim surfaced on a Facebook post dated September 24, 2024: “Egyptian forces have corralled themselves in Somalia: a delight for Abiy!”

A male voice says, “After conspiring to topple Ethiopia, its adversaries are turning on each other. We’re keen on ensuring Ethiopian squads linger in Mogadishu, staying well out of any tussle.”

Here, “enemies” points to Somalia and Egypt. Mogadishu, as many know, is Somalia’s bustling capital.

A screenshot from this misleading tale was snatched on September 2, 2024.

The clip also buzzes about a U.S. cautionary beacon for its citizens to leave Lebanon, given the skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah.

A third Facebook post boldly asserts, “Su-27 fighter planes have breached Mogadishu… Ethiopian troops aimed at overtaking Somalia are here.”

The Su-27, crafted by Russian hands, is a fighter jet well-utilized by the Ethiopian Air Force (ETAF).

The narrator trumpets, “History has been bookmarked. Ethiopian soldiers hoodwinked the Somali forces, grabbing hold of Mogadishu.” At the video’s outset, the message is clear.

“Hassan Sheik Mohammed, currently tagging along Egypt’s playbook, is left in disbelief. Although Somalia was itching to clash with Ethiopia, the BBC let slip that Ethiopia has over 20,000 soldiers stationed in Somalia.”

For clarity, Hassan Sheik Mohammed holds the presidency of Somalia.

A snapshot of this misleading yarn was taken on September 2, 2024.

Now, let’s talk about regional unease:

The winds between Ethiopia and Somalia took a chilly turn when Ethiopia shook hands on a maritime accord with North Western State of Somalia earlier this year. Relations dipped (you can check the archived version).

Egypt and Ethiopia: these two have long been nipping at each other, thanks to that dam on the Nile. Egypt loaded Somalia with defense goodies shortly after the duo inked a military pact in August (it’s archived too).

Hot off the press: Another batch of Egyptian military aid touched down in Mogadishu, according to worldwide news outlets (archived as well).

Adding spice to the mix is the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), a peacekeeping troupe with over 3,000 Ethiopian soldiers battling al-Shabab militants. Known previously as AMISON, this mission is due to wrap up by year-end (archived here as well).

Come January 2025, the African Union Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) steps in, with a tempting offer from Egypt to chip in some boots on the ground.

Ethiopia’s future with AUSSOM remains uncertain—Somalia laid down the law in late August that Ethiopian involvement hinges on retracting the maritime agreement with North Western State of Somalia.

These skyrocketing tensions make for a thrilling tale, but claims of a regional conflict brewing are misleading at best.

Lack of Evidence:

The tales spun in these video scripts are paper-thin and don’t hold water.

The first reel only skims the latest chapter of the military camaraderie shared by Ethiopia and China.

Mirroring Egypt and Somalia, both nations inked a deal on September 15, 2024, to cross swords in “Fifth-Generation Warfare (5GW), tech transfers, armed gear, and military prowess building,” per a dispatch from the Ethiopian News Agency.

Oddly, the chatter doesn’t even hint at Chinese stealth planes.

In recounting the bilateral arrangement, the narrator quips that “China has delightful tidings for Ethiopia’s military. Defense top brass from both lands pronounced an agreement to bolster military ties.”

There’s no mention of Egypt’s “demise,” just a suggestion that the fortified military bond could spell “disaster” for Egypt.

The second video dishes out various tidbits, such as stories about “Somalis protesting against Egyptian deployment in Mogadishu.”

Global outlets have turned the spotlight on protests in many Somali regions in response to potential Egyptian troops lurking under AUSSOM’s banner (archived here).

But a plot twist! The video doesn’t sketch Egyptian troops ensnared in Somalia.

And, of course, the third reel also sidesteps any mention of Ethiopian fighter jets getting chummy with Mogadishu’s skies.

Instead, it sticks to the peacekeeping gigs, paraphrasing that “3,000 Ethiopian soldiers were inserted into Somalia’s landscape under the African Union Mission banner, joined by a squadron of over 7,000 soldiers scattered across various regions via bilateral pacts before any Egyptian troops even set foot.”

A thorough online dive yielded zilch in terms of credible news backing these misleading proclamations.

AFP Fact Check has already taken a hammer to these and similar claims of military turbulence in the Horn of Africa (more debunking here and here).

Edited by: Ali Musa

Axadle international–Monitoring