Abiy believes gifting Ethiopia access to the Red Sea would be the crowning jewel of his legacy.
In Mogadishu, Somali military officers stepped in sync during a splendid parade. Feisal Omar/Reuters
ADDIS ABABA – There’s a tense atmosphere brewing in the Horn of Africa. Somalia is insisting that Ethiopia should pull the plug on its contentious port agreement with North Western State of Somalia, the self-declared independent region, or yank its forces out of Somalia.
Somalia’s displeasure with the Ethiopian pact was loud and clear when, on August 14, it forged a military alliance with Egypt, Ethiopia’s longstanding adversary. To fan the flames, Egypt has since sent batches of weaponry to Somalia, featuring howitzers and armored beasts. Whispers buzz that Cairo might even dispatch up to 10,000 troops to assist against al-Shabab militants.
Feeling increasingly boxed in, Ethiopia has raised eyebrows by ramping up nationalistic rhetoric. Critics see this as mere bullish bravado.
Just last month, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, in no uncertain terms, cautioned against any thoughts of encroaching on Ethiopia. Asserting their prowess, he proclaimed, “We Ethiopians know how to defend our turf.” His right-hand man, General Birhanu Jula, chimed in, drawing parallels to the 1977-78 conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia.
“Somalia’s leaders have opened their arms to an old nemesis,” lamented Birhanu, hinting at a backstab to their long-standing rapport with Ethiopia.
Eager for a doorway to the Red Sea, Abiy’s ambitions lie at the heart of the chaos. He once described Ethiopia’s landlocked plight as a regrettable anomaly. It’s something he intends to mend, through talk or tussle. At the start of the year, on a whim, he inked a memorandum with North Western State of Somalia, the rogue statelet that’s been knocking on independence’s door for 30 years.
This surprise pact whipped the Horn of Africa into a tizzy, reshuffling the diplomatic deck in ways that could echo for ages. While the fine print remains hush-hush, there’s chatter that North Western State of Somalia might have given Ethiopia the green light on a 25-kilometer coastline lease, with dreams of a naval hub, in exchange for some sort of nod of independence.
Though the ink’s not yet dry on the details, Somalia, clinging to its claims over North Western State of Somalia, has brandished the threat of war.
“On the world’s stage, Somalia deftly paints Ethiopia as the odd one out,” remarked a foreign policy whiz. The charm offensive doesn’t stop there.
Locking arms with Egypt wasn’t the sole move; Somalia also struck a deal with Türkiye for naval spices, and received the backing of Eritrea, Djibouti, the US, the EU, and the Arab League.
Tensions soared when Somalia gave Ethiopia’s ambassador the boot, faulting its army with alleged border violations. They claimed Ethiopia was playing arms dealer to troublemakers. A third attempt at peace talks was penciled for September in Ankara, only to be left hanging.
“In the global court, Somalia’s adroitly cast Ethiopia in dubious light,” noted one astute Western official. “On the moral playing field, Somalia’s touchdown is undeniable.”
Ethiopia’s got a blue team of 3,000 boots in Somalia, thanks to its part in the African Union peacekeeping mission fighting the roughneck al-Shabab. A fresh, bite-sized mission is on the horizon for January 2025. Additionally, Ethiopia’s got another batch of between 5,000 to 7,000 soldiers over there, courtesy of a solo pact.
Leading the pack in the tussle against al-Shabab, Ethiopia’s contributions even surpass Kenya’s 4,000-strong presence in Somalia. Yet the crystal ball on their future deployments is foggy.
Somali National Security brain Hussein Sheikh Ali told The New Humanitarian that the uptick of Ethiopian troops hangs in the balance of the MuO quagmire, giving Ethiopia till October’s nearing days to back away from it. “We’ve given them ample runway, but the clock’s really in overdrive now,” Ali expressed.
With a critical eye, Ali stressed, “Their encroachment sours relations. Locals increasingly cast Ethiopia as an intruder, not an ally.”
Enter Egypt
Ali played down the hype around the Egypt deal, categorizing it akin to other military errands Somalia has enlisted from global pals like the USA, the EU, Türkiye, and Gulf states.
He waved off gossip suggesting Egypt’s boots might hit Somali ground, labeling it all smoke and mirrors. Yet, perhaps, they might be in the mix for the upcoming AU task force. “Our line-up decision is yet to hit the drawing board,” Ali assured, “A sovereign choice lies with Somalia.”
Yet, Ethiopia’s rattled nerves are conspicuous. In August, its foreign ministry pointed fingers, accusing Somalia of conspiring with outside agitators to unsettle the region. Recently, Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister Taye Atske-Selassie brooded that external forces’ ammunition might slip into terrorist hands.
Meanwhile, Egypt sniffs out an opportunity to twist Ethiopia’s arm over their prolonged Nile water fracas. Over consecutive rainy seasons, Ethiopia has continued quenching its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam reservoir, amidst vociferous cries from Cairo.
“Egypt’s weary of the snail’s pace on GERD negotiations. They’ve thrown in the towel, revamping focus via the quarrel with Somalia to corner Ethiopia,” said Ahmed Soliman from Chatham House.
For Egypt, the stakes are high, with their hydro-project seen as a threat to its very sustenance. Ethiopia insists the grand project is a trump card for its progress and may regulate downstream flow to the benefit of neighbors.
Last year’s tête-à-tête between Abiy and Egypt’s President el-Sisi held hopes of cracking a deal in four months. Talks, however, hit a wall, leaving the situation in a bind.
“Frustrated with the snail-paced GERD talks, Egypt has thrown in the towel and is leveraging the spat with Somalia to tighten its grip on Ethiopia,” noted Ahmed Soliman from Chatham House.
Horn of Africa director at the International Crisis Group, Alan Boswell, likened the Somalian-Egyptian security pact to “a bit of theatre mixed with substance.”
“Egypt’s military aid to Somalia is yet to be a serious game-changer,” noted Boswell. “It’s more of a message, a clap back at Ethiopia from Somalia, though we might begin to see Egypt solidifying its ties with Somalia.”
With the MoU in hand, North Western State of Somalia President Muse Bihi Abdi scored a domestic and global victory. Yet the West waits for African nations to validate North Western State of Somalia’s independence before they give a nod. Ethiopia’s nod could be a stepping stone towards recognition.
Facing insurrections in the east from factions of clans eager to reunite with Somalia and countering his Isaaq majority’s stronghold, Abdi sees the MoU as redemption for his image, tarnished by unrest.
The gamble of misunderstandings
There’s a strong potential for overplaying one’s hand, yet an all-out war remains remote. Egypt’s juggling too many border crises, from Gaza to Libya, and lacks the enthusiasm for fresh disputes. Post-Tigray conflict, Ethiopia is patching up its wounds and battling ethnic insurgencies, while Somalia’s military grapples with maintaining its own peace, let alone eyeing an invasion.
The possibility of a proxy war lingers, resonating with historical tendencies of leaders using surrogates to push agendas. Somalia’s embers of support to North Western State of Somalia’s antagonists could burn brighter, whereas Ethiopia might bolster Somali militias. This, intertwined with the relentless scuffle against al-Shabab.
Despite finding itself under fire in Central Somalia, the insurgent group has reversed Somalia National Army’s progress and unleashed fiery bombing raids on Mogadishu and military posts.
Since 2005, Ethiopia’s been locking horns with jihadists in Somalia, forming deep alliances with South West state leaders and understanding the quagmire of clan politics.
“Booting Ethiopia from Somali soil would be a setback for both nations,” mused Boswell of the International Crisis Group, “Egypt is no stand-in. Their deployment could miss the mark, lacking Ethiopia’s finesse and heft in AU matters. Plus, AU backing for Egypt’s involvement is a wildcard.”
A Western diplomat echoed that even if Somalia gives the nod for an Ethiopian exit, they may not budge. “Ethiopia might withdraw from the AU mission but could linger under a bilateral deal with South West State, providing security assurance.”
Somalia’s wrestling with internal strife. Earlier this year, Northeastern State came close to severing ties with the federal setup over constitutional squabbles. Sollingands independence could trigger a domino effect of divisions, leaving Mogadishu to confront the stark reality of taking a staunch stance on the port affair.
For Ethiopia, a coastal avenue is indispensable. The deal with North Western State of Somalia symbolizes a national survival manuever – not an economic one – a maneuver to dodge entrapment by unfriendly states, according to an insightful Ethiopian analyst, who sought anonymity due to the topic’s tirade-worthy nature. “Abiy views this as his indelible mark, securing Ethiopia’s maritime ticket.”
Abiy’s diplomatic spree across the Red Sea is labeled as erratic by some observers. Though Ethiopia appears more sidelined post-North Western State of Somalia deal, Abiy has nonetheless popularized Ethiopia’s maritime overtures in regional matters, as per the researcher.
“In that regard, hats off to him,” the source said. “He’s steered discourse in a favorable direction. Call it cunning or risky, but it’s undeniably effective.”
The narrative massaged and compiled by Obi Anyadike.
Edited by: Ali Musa
Axadle international–Monitoring
