Mogadishu (AX) — With the approach of the Gu season, spanning from March to May, Somalia finds itself at a critical junction. As weather forecasts project an arid stretch paired with steamy temperatures, this season’s climate is already stirring concerns across the country. These projections were revealed at the recent sixth National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF6), an event that convened in Mogadishu on March 4-5, 2025.
The gathering, orchestrated by the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change (MoECC), was infused with wisdom from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC). Drawing together over 40 experts hailing from diverse realms such as agriculture, health, and disaster management, the forum cast an illuminating light on the anticipated climate predicaments.
According to the seasonal outlook, regions like Gedo, Hiraan, and Middle Shabelle anticipate below-average rainfall. The likelihood of these areas absolutely baking under drier-than-normal conditions? Over 50%. Meanwhile, temperatures appear poised to not just rise, but possibly soar, particularly in Hirshabelle, Galmudug, Northeastern State, and North Western State of Somalia, where the thermometer is more than 60% likely to breach seasonal expectations.
The rhythm of rain varies:
- Early onset (April 10–17, 2025): Expected predominantly in western and northern parts of Gedo.
- Moderate onset (April 17–24, 2025): Anticipated in Lower Juba, Southwest, and Hirshabelle States.
- Late onset (April 24–30, 2025): Likely to occur in Mudug and southern Nugaal regions.
- Latest onset: Bari region might experience the latest rains.
The forecast is a stark reminder: climate conditions hold substantial weight over Somalia’s agricultural backbone and water resources. As long, drawn-out dry periods and elevated temperatures loom, existing vulnerabilities could echo with greater severity. One can’t help but wonder, how do communities cope? For those whose livelihoods pivot on livestock, it’s more than a challenge—it could become a dire ordeal.
“Addressing these impending circumstances demands swift action across all spectrums,” emphasized Mohamed Abdullahi from MoECC. “Bolstering our early warning systems, reinforcing efforts towards drought resilience, and promoting sustainable, climate-savvy farming is paramount.”
A snapshot from the forum reveals a meeting of minds at the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change in Mogadishu, Somalia, held during the sixth National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF6) on March 4-5, 2025.
In light of these startling revelations, the forum calls on Somali authorities, along with humanitarian organizations and communities, to gear up for potential crises. How do we navigate this imminent challenge? By embracing water conservation methods, fostering drought-resistant crops, and preparing for health concerns like heat-related illnesses. These are not merely reactions; they are proactive strategies.
Interestingly, the heart of the forum’s initiative was financed by the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) Horn of Africa project, providing the essential support for the event’s orchestration and for crafting climate advisories. With eyes set on the horizon, participants are now engaged in spreading the word about seasonal forecasts and partnering with local stakeholders. The goal? To face the forthcoming 2025 Gu season with bravery and preparedness.
