This Saturday, Georgians will participate in a pivotal election that pits a coalition of pro-Western opposition parties against the ruling party, which has been accused of eroding democratic principles and leaning towards Russia.
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Brussels has underscored the importance of the October 26th election, emphasizing it as a critical moment for Georgia’s emerging democracy and its enduring ambition to join the European Union.
Current opinion surveys suggest that opposition parties might secure sufficient votes to form a coalition government, challenging the ruling Georgian Dream party, overseen by the influential billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili.
The government has expressed its desire to achieve a supermajority in parliament, allowing it to enact constitutional amendments to effectively ban the pro-Western opposition.
“However, if the ruling party attempts to cling to power irrespective of the election results, the potential for post-election chaos is significant,” warned analysts.
Having been in power since 2012, Georgian Dream originally embraced a liberal pro-Western policy. Yet, over the past two years, the party has notably shifted its stance.
Its campaign now hinges on the controversial theory of a so-called “global war party” that purportedly controls Western institutions and aims to embroil Georgia in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
In a nation still nursing the wounds of Russia’s 2008 invasion, the party has resorted to fearmongering tactics, suggesting that only Georgian Dream can protect citizens from a looming war.
In a recent televised conversation, Ivanishvili painted a bizarre and unflattering picture of the West, claiming it resembles a place where “orgies occur right on the streets.”
‘A Test of Democracy’
The party’s introduction of a contentious “foreign influence law” earlier this spring, which targeted civil society, ignited widespread protests and was labeled a Kremlin-like strategy aimed at stifling dissent.
This controversial move led Brussels to suspend Georgia’s EU accession process, while the United States placed sanctions on numerous Georgian officials.
Just this month, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warned that the actions of Georgian Dream “indicate a troubling shift towards authoritarianism.”
He remarked that the impending elections serve as “a crucial test for democracy in Georgia and its aspirations for EU membership.”
Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has pledged to guide Georgia towards EU integration, asserting that relations with the West will improve once the conflict in Ukraine concludes.
As for undecided voters, recent polls signal that opposition parties are in a strong position to form a coalition government.
The alliance features the United National Movement (UNM), led by jailed former president Mikheil Saakashvili, alongside the newly formed Akhali party, which is headed by former UNM leaders.
Coupled with several minor parties, they have agreed on a pro-European policy framework that outlines extensive reforms in electoral processes, judiciary practices, and law enforcement.
These parties have reached a consensus to create a provisional multi-party government to facilitate these reforms, provided they secure an adequate number of seats in parliament, before calling for new elections.
They contend that the existing electoral landscape is not conducive to fair democratic processes, arguing that a new vote within a year—after implementing the necessary reforms—would authentically capture the electorate’s will.
Geographically positioned between the Caucasus Mountains and the Black Sea, Georgia was once seen as a beacon of democracy among former Soviet states.
However, elections in this nation of roughly four million tend to stir significant public unrest.
A polling estimate conducted by Edison Research just ahead of the elections suggests that 34% of determined voters lean towards Georgian Dream, while the grouped opposition forces are projected to claim 53% of the total votes.
No other political faction is anticipated to surpass the 5% threshold required to earn seats in the 150-member parliament.
Nonetheless, the election’s outcome remains uncertain, as over a quarter of the respondents indicated they were either undecided or reluctant to disclose their political preferences.
Voting will commence at 7 AM local time (4 AM Irish time) and conclude at 7 PM. Exit polls will be available as soon as polls close.
This election, conducted under a proportional party list system, will undergo evaluation by international monitors from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
Edited by: Ali Musa
alimusa@axadletimes.com
Axadle international–Monitoring
