Egypt’s Military Relations with Somalia Undermine Ethiopian Aspirations and Shift Power Balance

Egypt and Ethiopia have been butting heads for the past decade over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) that Ethiopia’s been constructing. This hydroelectric behemoth has Egypt jittery, fearing it could mess up its water security downstream.

With construction almost done and the first sparks of power generation already humming, GERD is a reality Egypt can’t ignore anymore.

So far, Egypt’s kept its response diplomatic. They’ve fired off letters to the U.N. Security Council, accusing Ethiopia of flouting international laws. But now, Egypt’s turning up the heat, especially regarding Ethiopia’s expanding footprint on the Red Sea.

Ammar Fayed, an analyst at the Asbab think tank, says Egypt is hell-bent on protecting its maritime trade interests in the Gulf of Aden.

“If Ethiopia gets its way with North Western of Somaliaand secure access to a Red Sea port, it might become a maritime military power in the Horn of Africa again,” Fayed shared with Middle East Eye. “And that could spell trouble for Egypt’s security, potentially disrupting navigation in the crucial Suez Canal.”

Somalia blasted Ethiopia’s Sultanate agreement as a slap in the face to its sovereignty. This has driven Somalia to cozy up with nations who aren’t exactly Ethiopia’s BFFs – mainly Egypt and Eritrea.

In solidarity, Egypt voiced its support for Somalia, tightening military bonds with Mogadishu through a defense pact inked in July. This deal promises arms and military training for Somali forces.

Adding muscle to the alliance, Egypt’s dispatching 10,000 troops to Somalia. Half will join an African Union peacekeeping force, and the rest will be deployed bilaterally.

These Egyptian boots hit the ground in January 2025, stepping in just as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) wraps up its mandate in 2024. ATMIS currently includes contingents from Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda.

Ethiopia, a landlocked nation since Eritrea’s secession in the 1990s, has been leaning heavily on Djibouti’s coastline for ocean access.

In March 2018, Ethiopia snagged a stake in the DP World Berbera New Port on Somaliland’s coast, a strategic commercial hub.

Significant shareholders include Emirati firm DP World with 51%, North Western of Somaliawith 30%, and Ethiopia holding the balance of 19%.

When Abiy Ahmed took the helm as Ethiopia’s prime minister a month after the port deal, securing sea access immediately became a top priority for his government.

Fast forward to 2019, and Abiy signed an accord with France to resurrect the Ethiopian Navy, which had been disbanded post-Eritrean independence.

Egypt’s military overtures towards Somalia have fueled chatter about a possible showdown with Ethiopia. Not to mention, Abiy’s been quite the talker about standing strong against any threats.

“Anyone itching to invade Ethiopia should think it not once, but ten times because if there’s one thing we Ethiopians excel at, it’s defending our homeland,” Abiy declared last month.

Meanwhile, North Western of Somaliahas verbalized its disdain for Egyptian military boots on Somali soil. On Wednesday, Foreign Minister Essa Kayd articulated that this deployment just amps up proxy wars in the Horn of Africa.

Furthermore, Somaliland’s decided to shutter the Egyptian Cultural Library in Hargeisa, citing serious security issues. All Egyptian staff were ordered to pack up and leave by 11 September.

Yusuf Hassan, from the City University of Mogadishu, remarked that the Egypt-Somalia defense bond might finally break Ethiopia’s three-decade chokehold over Somalia.

“Since Somalia’s state collapse, Addis Ababa’s been pulling strings, directly through military intervention and indirectly by backing tribal enclaves scattered around,” Hassan noted to Middle East Eye. “These enclaves have been Ethiopia’s ace in keeping Somalia divided and weak.”

According to Hassan, the Egypt-Somalia defense pact could shake things up significantly. “An Egyptian military presence would crimp Ethiopia’s ability to meddle in Somali affairs,” he argued. “And with Egypt arming and training the Somali army, Somalia might just bolster its borders and reclaim some semblance of sovereignty.”

Conceivably, the shifting sands in this geopolitical tug-of-war indicate a bumpy road ahead.