Mogadishu’s Shadows: Al-Shabaab’s Strategic Maneuvers

MOGADISHU, Somalia (AXADLE TIMES) – Within the complex and shifting sands of Somali politics, Al-Shabaab has once again undertaken a significant transformation of its elite military apparatus, Jabha. Driven by the relentless pursuit of enhanced operational efficiency and a visionary albeit ominous expansion into drone warfare, the group’s actions provoke both concern and curiosity.

A source at the heart of this development recently revealed that Yasir Jiis, the seasoned head of Jabha, has been moved to a more clandestine role within the organization’s intelligence arm, Amniyat. This pivot was orchestrated by none other than Mahad Karate, also known as Mahad Abdirahman Warsame, a prominent voice within Al-Shabaab’s elite Shura Council.

The Jabha unit is reputed as the cutting edge of Al-Shabaab’s militant activities. These fighters represent the group’s most skilled operatives, frequently executing assaults on Somali government facilities, African Union military bases, and extending their reach to neighboring regions such as Kenya and Ethiopia.

Yasir Jiis, a native of the Galgaduud region in central Somalia, is now believed to helm a covert team operating in the Sool and Sanaag regions. His new mission involves fortifying crucial land and maritime smuggling routes from northern to southern Somalia, passages vital for the movement of arms and supplies originating from Yemen.

Historically, the Sanaag coastline has enabled Al-Shabaab’s access to the Red Sea, facilitating the influx of arms and foreign fighters into Somalia. However, the central route through Harardheere has been compromised due to heightened counter-terrorism efforts and the emergence of opposing clan militias.

Photo: Al-Shabaab militants in the Sanaag mountainous region (date unknown)

This strategic realignment is underscored by a recent United Nations Panel of Experts’ report, which outlines increased collaboration between Al-Shabaab and Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Despite their religious and ideological rifts—Al-Shabaab being Sunni, the Houthis, Shia—a pragmatic alliance has flourished, driven by shared strategic interests.

One might ponder: what underlies this convergence of seemingly opposing forces? Al-Shabaab has reportedly embraced drone technology and training from the Houthis, aiming to harness drones for targeted attacks. In a quid pro quo arrangement, the Houthis exploit this partnership as a lucrative avenue for illicit arms sales to Al-Shabaab, involving ammunition and military equipment.

Remarkably, Al-Shabaab’s operations transcend land, reflecting in a troubling resurgence of piracy along Somalia’s coast. Collaborating with local pirate networks, the group hijacks commercial vessels, raking in substantial ransoms amounting to millions, reinforcing its financial stronghold.

The UN panel confirmed that newly trained Al-Shabaab operatives returned to Somalia between June and September 2024. Although the details of their training remain speculated, the group is evidently laying the groundwork to operationalize drone-based assaults, with Yasir Jiis seemingly at the helm, enjoying unwavering confidence from Mahad Karate.

Another figure entwined in this narrative is Abdisataar Abdiqaadir Isse, a former member who switched allegiances to the Somali National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) before rejoining Al-Shabaab in August 2023, as acknowledged by NISA. Isse brings with him expertise in drone operations from his training under Turkish and U.S.-backed initiatives, now fueling Al-Shabaab’s evolving drone strategy.

Unveiling Yasir Jiis: A Man of Contradictions

Who is Yasir Jiis? A man in his early forties, he shares familial ties with Mahad Mohamed Salad, the current Director of NISA, further complicating the intricate web of Somali politics. Their fathers are brothers, intertwining familial allegiances with national security dynamics.

Yet, such connections do not come without peril. In October 2022, the U.S. Treasury Department designated Yasir Jiis as a global terrorist, placing a $5 million bounty on his capture or demise. His ascent within Al-Shabaab aligns with the reappointment of his cousin, Mahad Salad, as NISA chief—a decision sanctioned by the Federal Government’s Council of Ministers.

Connections deepen. Mahad Karate, another on the U.S. terror list, reputedly shares familial bonds with Mahad Salad. In a twist of personal and public interest, 2023 saw the release of Karate’s relatives—a boy and a girl—from detention in Mogadishu, reportedly aided by Mahad Salad’s intervention.

As Al-Shabaab continues to morph amidst these intricate ties and strategic recalibrations, the intricate dance between kinship, ideology, and power persists, reflecting the enduring reality of Somalia’s precarious landscape.

Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International–Monitoring