The elusive quest to dismantle the Islamic State network threaded through the rugged terrain of north-eastern Somalia requires resilience and acute caution. Yet, such an assignment must negotiate the subtlety of mountainous hideouts against an adversary thriving in shadows. Unyielding and stoic, these militants persist, shaping the narrative of extremism in Africa’s complex tapestry.
In an audacious move, former U.S. President Donald Trump struck with characteristic bravado—a hallmark reminiscent of his tenure. Following an airstrike aimed at obliterating an Islamic State stronghold, he boldly declared on social media: “WE WILL FIND YOU, AND WE WILL KILL YOU!” This was more than a tactical maneuver; it was a statement oozing with the bravado that punctuated Trump’s presidency.
The airstrike, sanctioned a mere fortnight into his administration, targeted a senior IS orchestrator and accomplices within the autonomous Northeastern State region of Somalia. Trump heralded the assault’s triumph in obliterating terrorist dwellings without civilian harm. Such proclamations were often couched in mentions of his supposed superiority over his predecessor, Joe Biden. “Biden and his cronies wouldn’t act quickly enough to get the job done. I did!” he trumpeted.
For some in Somalia, this mission unfolded with unexpected readiness. Could it signal that the U.S. might pivot away from Somalia’s fraught corridors? In his first presidency, Trump had pulled approximately 700 troops from Somalia—a move later reversed by the succeeding administration. Somalia’s $600,000 (£492,000) lobbying contract with BGR Group in Washington only underscores the apprehension about their strategic abandonment.
Under Biden’s stewardship, American forces engaged extensively in Somalia, organizing elite units and conducting routine airstrikes. Just before the infamous airstrike, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud engaged in a candid dialogue with the Washington Post. He implored the U.S. to maintain its advisory and training support, a testament to the precarious nature of Somali sovereignty.
What echoes in the chamber of these diplomatic engagements is Somalia’s record of displays of appreciation toward Trump’s tactical maneuvers. Yet, striking from the sky sharply diverges from boots-on-the-ground campaigns. Trump’s legacy has been defined by a substantial surge in air raids, achieving almost 400 during his tenure.
Matt Bryden, a strategic adviser at the Nairobi-based Sahan Research, frames this action in a broader context: “The strike does not mean that the U.S. government is going to step up its military engagement in Somalia.” There’s skepticism towards Somalia’s administration, once considered a critical ally yet now seen as a tenuous partner in Africa’s vast security landscape.
The approach to counter-terrorism adopted in Northeastern State diverges markedly from its federal counterparts. As of March last year, Northeastern State has operated independently, aligning its modest resources to fight IS with limited external assistance. Mohamed Mubarak, leading the region’s security coordination office, articulates the persistent battles waged by local forces. “It is not fair to put the airstrike front and center while we have been fighting and dying on the ground,” Mubarak insists.
Northeastern State’s resolve is measured in tangible gains, having captured 48 caves and IS outposts, and dismantled countless drones and explosives since the onset of its “hilaac” (lightning) offensive. The ascent of IS in Somalia, though a year-long chapter, has repercussions that ripple through regional dynamics.
Examining the landscape of extremist groups, IS’s threat, though formidable, still lingers below the notorious Al-Shabab—a group synonymous with terror in Somalia. However, recent strategic shifts spotlight IS-Somalia as a pivot in the Islamic State’s broader aspirations. The leader, Abdulqadir Mumin, whispered to be the global face of IS, remains shrouded in mystery. Yet, like a shadow, his specter looms large.
As Trump ominously warns: “These killers, who we found hiding in caves, threatened the United States and our allies.” Professor Tricia Bacon, directing anti-terrorism studies at American University, cautions: “IS-Somalia has taken on more responsibilities within the Islamic State network, particularly in Africa but beyond the continent as well.” It occupies a critical position, a nerve center bridging IS operations from Mozambique to Mali. The outreach extends beyond African confines, nurturing potentials for attacks in the West.
Could there be more allies to court? Might the brooding collusion with Iranian-aligned Houthis in Yemen herald unfettered turmoil? Bryden suggests a haunting familiarity: IS-Somalia taps into Yemeni resources, exacerbating already strained relations in a tumultuous region. New prospects arise as their strength swells—a composition largely foreign, drawing recruits from Ethiopia, Tanzania, and beyond.
The displaced seek shores of hope, yet IS temptation lures them into its fold with promises of pay surpassing Gulf migratory dreams. Could this amalgam restore vigor to extremist roots? The estimates of IS-Somalia’s cadre hover around 600-1000. While conjecture surrounds its numerical ascendancy, tangible impacts reverberate. December saw a telling attack—a testament to their strategic maturity.
Their fiscal framework empowers them as well. IS’s financial operations, notably the al-Karrar office in Northeastern State, funnel resources across affiliates—a model scrutinized by U.S. Treasury and the UN. The first half of 2022 saw nearly $2 million raised through local taxation, fortifying an existential challenge.
While the precision of U.S. air support becomes central to Northeastern State’s strategy, successes should not mislead about the enduring challenge. The recent surrender of IS-Somalia’s infamous assassination squad leader, Abdirahman Shirwa Aw-Said, is but a fragment of the narrative—future endeavors will require sustained efforts.
Does America possess the resolve to perpetuate these aerial campaigns? Mary Harper, with profound insights into Somalia, probes this landscape with her work, “Everything You Have Told Me Is True.” In the play of strategy and persuasion, Somalia’s reality remains an intricate tapestry, forever evolving.
Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International–Monitoring
