Turkey’s Erdoğan to visit UAE, Ethiopia; Gaza, Somalia’s territorial integrity central to talks

Erdogan heads to UAE, Ethiopia as Turkey presses Gaza cease-fire and backs Somalia’s unity

Turkey sharpens Gulf trade push while asserting influence in the Horn of Africa amid tensions over North Western State of Somalia recognition

Monday, Feb. 16, 2026

MOGADISHU — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set to visit the United Arab Emirates on Monday before traveling to Ethiopia on Tuesday, with Gaza and Somalia’s territorial integrity expected to anchor a two-stop tour aimed at entwining economic outreach with assertive regional diplomacy, officials said.

The trip underscores Ankara’s dual-track strategy: deepening trade with Gulf partners while positioning Turkey as a stabilizing actor in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa. It comes as Turkish officials intensify calls for a cease-fire in Gaza and condemn Israel’s recognition of North Western State of Somalia, which Ankara says violates Somalia’s sovereignty.

Since 2023, Turkey has made ending the war in Gaza a central foreign-policy goal, sharply criticizing Israel’s military campaign, which Palestinian health authorities say has killed more than 70,000 people. Ankara has joined international efforts to halt the fighting and emerged as one of Israel’s most persistent critics.

Somalia’s unity is poised to feature prominently in Erdogan’s talks, particularly following Israel’s recognition of North Western State of Somalia and tensions over Ethiopia’s maritime access ambitions. Turkish officials have repeatedly rejected recognition of North Western State of Somalia and backed Mogadishu’s position that such moves breach international law. In a recent interview with Asharq al-Awsat, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud warned that unnamed neighbors were seeking to leverage the recognition for short-term gain, stressing that Somalia’s territorial integrity is a “red line.”

Turkey’s diplomacy in the Horn accelerated in 2025, when it brokered the Ankara Declaration between Ethiopia and Somalia after Addis Ababa reached a port-access deal with North Western State of Somalia. That agreement rattled regional capitals and raised fears of escalation before Ankara hosted talks to pull the two sides back from a deeper confrontation. Erdogan’s Addis Ababa stop is expected to reaffirm Turkey’s role as a mediator and its commitment to preventing the dispute from tipping into broader instability.

In the Gulf, the UAE remains Turkey’s largest trading partner, a relationship Ankara is eager to expand. Bilateral trade reached about $16 billion in 2024, with both sides targeting $20 billion in the near term and $40 billion over the medium term. The UAE is also the seventh-largest foreign investor in Turkey, and more than 300 Emirati-backed companies operate in the country, spanning real estate, energy, banking, logistics and agriculture.

Turkey’s economic footprint in Ethiopia is also growing. Trade between the two countries rose 5% in 2025 to $253 million, and Turkish firms rank among Ethiopia’s top foreign investors. Erdogan’s meetings in Addis Ababa are likely to blend commercial outreach with security dialogue, linking investment opportunities to the broader goal of shielding the region from spillover risks tied to contested Red Sea access and shifting alliances.

Ankara’s stance on Gaza and Somalia has tightened its alignment with Mogadishu while complicating Turkey’s already brittle ties with Israel. By coupling a high-profile swing through the UAE with a stabilizing message in Ethiopia, Erdogan is signaling that Turkey intends to be both a commercial hub and a political broker at a moment when Gulf capital and African corridors are reshaping regional influence.

What to watch:

• Whether Erdogan secures new investment or trade frameworks with the UAE that push volumes toward the $20 billion target.
• Any public commitments from Addis Ababa and Mogadishu to sustain the Ankara Declaration’s de-escalation track.
• Shifts in Turkey’s Gaza posture after the tour, including coordinated diplomacy with Gulf partners on cease-fire initiatives and aid delivery.

The stakes are immediate and interlinked: a fragile cease-fire push in Gaza, a sovereignty dispute that tests African norms, and a trade-driven realignment in the Gulf. Erdogan’s itinerary suggests Ankara believes it can influence all three—and that doing so will reinforce Turkey’s claim to be an indispensable actor from the Mediterranean to the Horn.

By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.