As dawn breaks across the Horn of Africa, a region steeped in both history and conflict, Ethiopia and Eritrea—nations once unified under a shared banner—now seem to stand on the precipice of renewed strife. A casual observer might gaze upon a map, tracing the contours of these lands, asking: “Are we destined to repeat the past, or can wisdom steer us clear of calamity?”
In the bustling heart of Mogadishu, a sense of unease lingers in the air, one that’s palpable among both local citizens and international observers. Ethiopia and Eritrea, historically entwined yet frequently at odds, have ramped up military activity along their mutual border. Such posturing raises alarms, conjuring fears of hostility once more erupting in this already fragile region.
Lt. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, now serving as Vice President of Tigray’s Interim Administration, sheds light on this perilous moment. “War, sadly, seems unavoidable,” he asserts, pensively reflecting in a The Africa Report op-ed. Like a seasoned chess master foreseeing an inescapable checkmate, he notes how military gears have been set in motion, poised for action at a moment’s notice. Is there still time to alter course? His words suggest the clock is fast running out.
The specter of conflict, this time, looms large due to a complex mesh of historical grievances. Yet, it’s more than just echoes of past skirmishes that push these countries toward another potential confrontation. Ethiopia’s strategic moves to extend influence—its efforts to secure maritime access via controversial agreements, such as the one with North Western State of Somalia—illustrate this. Assab and Massawa, Eritrean ports long claimed, now symbolize the boiling cauldron of territorial ambitions.
“Geography has made us neighbors. History has made us friends. Economics has made us partners,” once spoke John F. Kennedy, reminding us of the ties binding nations. How do we invoke such sentiments in times marred by dispute?
State apparatus springs into action—Eritrean reserves find themselves summoned, armored vehicles rumbling southward where tensions simmer. Meanwhile, Ethiopia navigates internal complexities, notably within Tigray. The TPLF, previously dominant, fractures further with figures such as Debretsion Gebremichael and interim leader Getachew Reda pulling in different directions. Chaos swells, threatening to burst across already delicate fault lines.
Eritrea’s counterpoints—vocal, if uncompromising. Information Minister Yemane G. Meskel dismisses claims of meddling, viewing the Pretoria Agreement as a domestic affair for Ethiopia alone. But how credible are these denials? Ethiopian retorts hint at Eritrean aspirations to exploit Tigray’s vulnerability.
International concern escalates. Foreign Policy, among others, advocates for urgent mediation from the African Union, regional Gulf states, and global superpowers lest disorder spill beyond borders. The stakes are paramount—trade routes through the Red Sea hang in the balance, as do the tenuous stitches binding regional peace.
As tensions edge towards fever pitch, observers—both near and afar—are left wondering, “Is this another chapter in a never-ending saga, or might there yet be a way to rewrite the script?” Perhaps history can be our teacher. Or maybe, as those watchful eyes in Mogadishu hope, it’s not too late to heed its lessons, to seek dialogue over discord, resolution over ruin.
Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times International – Monitoring
