Somalia and Cairo Formalize Defense Pact as Initial Egyptian Military Advisors Arrive

The accord inked in August between the Somali and Egyptian governments, involving the deployment of ten Egyptian soldiers to Mogadishu, is coming to fruition. Half of these forces will be integrated into joint defense strategies, while the remaining troops will join the new African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), set to succeed the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) by January 31, 2025. According to the Somali Guardian, Egyptian military advisors have already landed in Somalia to assist army units managing vital Ethiopian supply routes—a strategic move to avoid further military buildup before the scheduled December 31 withdrawal. The advisors’ early arrival foreshadows the Egyptian contingent’s deployment, expected in Mogadishu by the end-of-year deadline. These moves promise to sour relations further with Ethiopia, especially due to the contentious memorandum of understanding inked on January 1st between Addis Ababa and the self-declared Republic of North Western State of Somalia.

Somalia has recently given the green light to Egyptian troop deployment, following President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s visit to Asmara. During a summit with Egypt’s Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Eritrea’s Isaiah Afwerki, a strategic pact was formed. Reportedly, it aims to stem Ethiopian expansion in the Red Sea. In a joint communiqué post-summit, the trio emphasized the importance of respecting regional sovereignty and countering external meddling of any kind, while upholding international law as a cornerstone of stability and cooperation. Their talks centered on securing the Red Sea and the critical Bab el-Mandeb Strait, described as a “vital maritime corridor.” The leaders recognized the contributions of Eritrea and Egypt toward Somali stability and voiced approval for Egypt’s willingness to provide peacekeeping troops in Somalia.

Following an unanticipated visit to Asmara by Egyptian intelligence chief Kamal Abbas, accompanied by Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, discussions between Egypt and Eritrea sustained momentum. Egyptian representatives conveyed President Afwerki’s perspective on the Red Sea developments, particularly the need for conditions favorable to normal maritime operations and trade via Bab el-Mandeb, connecting the Red Sea to the Arabian Sea. Together, Egypt and Eritrea hold roughly 5 kilometers of Red Sea coastline, encompassing Egypt’s Suez and Aqaba Gulfs and Eritrea’s 355 islands. Egypt oversees the northern Red Sea, linked to the Mediterranean by the Suez Canal. Eritrea overlooks the pivotal Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia gained traction after a January 1st memorandum between Ethiopia and North Western State of Somalia promising Ethiopia Red Sea access via Berbera port. The trade—recognized in exchange for acknowledging North Western State of Somalia’s sovereignty—was contested by Somalia, viewing it as a sovereignty breach. Recent weeks have seen tensions escalate, reaching a fever pitch as President Mohamud accused Ethiopia’s military of commandeering strategic airports in Somalia’s Ghedo region, where Ethiopian troops are active under ATMIS. Accusations also surfaced of Ethiopia arming clan militias, fuelling memorandum-related strife.

President Mohamud, in an interview with “Al Jazeera” in Arabic, declared Ethiopia has asserted complete command over Gedo, bolstering clan militias to undermine Somalia’s government. Addressing the Ethiopian-North Western State of Somalia memorandum, Mohamud warned that Ethiopia seeks not only a port but also aims for a foothold along the Red Sea, which he deemed unacceptable. The Ethiopian agenda, he stated, targets establishing a naval base to secure maritime supremacy. In recent weeks, Ethiopia mobilized armored vehicles and a sizable troop presence along the Somalian border, capturing key airfields in the Gedo region—Luq, Dolow, and Bardere—intending to obstruct a potential air corridor for Egyptian troops following their arrival under the Somalia-Egypt military cooperation accord forged in August.

Egypt’s longstanding rift with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) makes it a pivotal player in Somalia’s security since early 2023. It has been instrumental in training Somali recruits, supplying weapons, and providing medical care for injured soldiers in Egyptian facilities. Last year, discussions for heightened strategic cooperation between Mogadishu and Cairo surfaced, with whispers suggesting a potential Egyptian military base in Somalia’s south-central zone, although no confirmation has come forth. The mutual Ethiopian threat, paired with the rekindled alliance between Cairo and Turkey—a staunch ally of Somalia—catalyzed this convergence. This détente culminated in Egyptian President Sisi’s visit to Ankara, the first since 2014, signaling a thaw in relations after years of discord spurred by differing stances on political Islam and regional issues. The 2021 thaw among Gulf countries and Qatar, a significant ally of the Muslim Brotherhood, forged new pathways for Egypt-Turkey relations, subsequently tightening Somalia-Cairo ties.

Edited by: Ali Musa

alimusa@axadletimes.com

Axadle international–Monitoring