Somalia Says Voter Registration in Jubbaland to Start Soon, Pushing Toward One-Person, One-Vote
Somalia’s prime minister says voter registration in Jubbaland will begin “soon,” a fresh signal that the federal government is pressing ahead with a long-promised shift to one-person, one-vote elections across the country. The announcement, delivered Wednesday, is meant to reassure Somalis that preparations are on track for landmark local government polls slated for October 2025. But the path ahead remains bumpy, with political rifts and security concerns threatening to complicate the rollout.
- Advertisement -
A milestone years in the making
“Jubbaland will soon begin voter registration so that the people of the region can exercise their right to vote,” Prime Minister Hamse Abdi Barre said, casting the exercise as a constitutional obligation and a building block for accountable local institutions. The federal government sees the shift to direct elections as central to ending Somalia’s decades-old reliance on an indirect, clan-based power-sharing model known as the 4.5 formula. The goal, officials say, is to entrench a more durable democratic culture: ballots instead of bargaining, local councils chosen by citizens rather than negotiated by elites.
Somalia has been edging in this direction. In 2023, authorities oversaw a pilot municipal vote in Barawe, a coastal town in South West State—Somalia’s first direct election in decades. It was modest, yet symbolically potent, hinting at how a nationwide process might unfold. The Jubbaland registration drive is meant to extend that experiment into one of Somalia’s most strategically important federal member states, home to the port city of Kismayo and a population with long memories of conflict and negotiated peace.
Politics pulls at the seams
The prime minister’s announcement also lands in a contentious national debate. Opposition figures and leaders in Puntland State have rejected the current registration campaign, accusing Mogadishu of acting unilaterally and moving too quickly without the full buy-in of all federal member states. Jubbaland and federal authorities have been at loggerheads over political procedures before; trust between them is often tentative, mediated by face-to-face bargaining and external partners. Those tensions are not academic: they can affect who oversees registration centers, how voter rolls are verified, and which rules govern candidate selection for the local councils that follow.
That’s why a seemingly administrative step—opening registration tables, enrolling citizens, issuing voter cards—carries outsized political weight. Somalis know that the mechanics of an election are never just mechanics; they’re mirrors of power. As one civil society organizer in Kismayo put it earlier this year, “Everyone agrees on the principle of voting; the argument is about the process.” The question now is whether Jubbaland’s process will convince skeptics that the government in Mogadishu is building an inclusive framework rather than policing a political perimeter.
Security and logistics: the hard ground
Even in the best of times, organizing voter registration across Jubbaland is a demanding job. Parts of the state remain contested or vulnerable to attacks. Al-Shabab has historically targeted election infrastructure and officials, seeing direct voting as a threat to its control. Securing registration centers, safely transporting materials, and ensuring that both men and women can access the process will test the capacity of local authorities and federal security forces.
Then there’s the math. Somalia’s population is young and mobile, with many displaced by past droughts and floods. Creating credible voter lists will require careful outreach—especially to internally displaced people living in camps and informal settlements—and sustained public messaging in Somali and local dialects. Identity verification remains a technical hurdle in a country where documents have not always kept pace with reality. Lessons from the Barawe pilot, where civic education groups leaned heavily on community elders and radio broadcasts to reach voters, could be invaluable.
Donors and neighbors are watching
International partners have long supported Somalia’s electoral journey, providing technical advice, financial assistance, and security coordination. With the African Union’s peace mission transitioning and the federal government assuming greater responsibility, the coming months will show whether the state can independently manage a complex civilian operation in a challenging environment. The stakes reach beyond Somalia’s borders. Across the Horn of Africa, governments are under pressure to demonstrate that political reforms are not just promises on paper. For donors, credible voter registration is often the barometer for whether deeper investments make sense.
What success would look like
Somalis are a political people. In tea stalls in Kismayo and along Mogadishu’s Lido Beach, arguments over policy and power can stretch as long as the afternoons. Ideas travel fast on WhatsApp. Cynicism and hope co-exist. To persuade citizens that this time is different, authorities in Jubbaland—and in other states—will need to show that registration is open, fair, and transparent.
- Clear timelines: When and where can citizens register? Who staffs the centers?
- Public accountability: How are disputes over eligibility resolved? Can civil society observe?
- Inclusivity: Are women, youth, displaced people, and minority communities able to enroll without intimidation?
- Security coordination: Do local forces have clear plans to protect facilities without turning them into no-go zones?
Communication matters as much as logistics. Rumor can undo months of planning; transparency can buy the time organizers need. In 2025, as the scheduled local elections draw near, Somalis will judge the process by whether their names appear on the rolls—and whether they believe those rolls reflect their communities, not political deals struck elsewhere.
A step forward—if it holds
Wednesday’s announcement is, in one sense, a straightforward administrative update: voter registration is coming to Jubbaland soon. In another sense, it’s a test of the Somali state’s promise to move from selections to elections, from parity formulas to popular mandates. The federal government says these local contests will build a new generation of democratic institutions from the ground up. Skeptics worry that, without consensus and security, the effort could deepen mistrust.
The world has seen versions of this story before, from Afghanistan to the Democratic Republic of Congo: when fragile states try to change how power is conferred, registration lists become as political as the votes themselves. Somalia’s challenge is to keep the focus on citizens—the teacher in Kismayo hoping her council fixes a broken water point, the shopkeeper in Afmadow who wants better roads to move goods, the student in Dhobley who has never voted and wants to know what it means.
As registration begins, one question looms: will the people of Jubbaland see their names on the lists and feel that the door to their town halls has finally opened? If so, the October 2025 elections could be remembered not just as a date on a calendar, but as the moment Somalia’s long-promised democratic turn met the street.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
