Tuesday February 10, 2026
Kenya’s deepening drought has left more than 2 million people facing hunger, with cattle-keeping communities in the northeast the hardest hit, according to the United Nations and other agencies. Stark images of emaciated livestock along the arid frontier near Somalia have shocked a region where climate extremes increasingly set the pace of daily life.
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For many families, the rains have grown shorter and more erratic in recent years, exposing entire districts to prolonged dry spells. In such cycles, animals often die first — a devastating blow in places where herds are savings accounts, status and daily sustenance. The losses echo the 2020–2023 drought across the Horn of Africa, when millions of animals perished and a predicted famine in Somalia was averted only after a surge of international aid.
Those hard-won lessons are being tested again. Four consecutive wet seasons have failed in parts of the Horn, which juts into the Indian Ocean. The October-to-December wet season was among the driest on record, the U.N. health agency says, and parts of eastern Kenya were the driest they have been in that period since 1981.
Within Kenya, drought conditions now stretch across some 10 counties, according to the National Drought Management Authority. In Mandera County on the Somalia border, the situation has reached the “alarm” classification, signaling critical water shortages alongside mounting livestock deaths and child wasting.
- More than 2 million people in parts of Kenya face hunger as drought intensifies.
- Ten Kenyan counties are in drought; Mandera has reached the “alarm” phase.
- The October–December season was among the driest on record; parts of eastern Kenya were the driest since 1981.
- In Somalia, more than 3 million people have fled their homes for displacement camps amid the crisis.
- Africans contribute an estimated 3% to 4% of global emissions yet are among the most exposed to climate shocks, U.N. data show.
The emergency is regional. The World Health Organization warned in late January that suffering extends beyond Kenya to Somalia, Tanzania and Uganda, where similar weather patterns and water shortages threaten communities. In southern Somalia, an assessment by Islamic Relief described “shocking food shortages” as families flee worsening drought. The group says over 3 million Somalis are now internally displaced, and in the city of Baidoa — a hub for those uprooted — an estimated 70% of people in camps survive on one meal a day or less, with children showing visible signs of malnutrition and wasting.
Experts link the escalating crisis to climate change. A warmer Indian Ocean is feeding more destructive tropical storms, while dry spells grow longer, more intense and more severe across the region. The result is punishing for a continent where rain-fed agriculture remains the economic mainstay. Farmers and herders say higher temperatures and erratic rains deny pasture to livestock and wither crops, making recovery between shocks ever harder.
That climate disparity cuts to the heart of the Horn of Africa’s vulnerability. Despite contributing only a small fraction — roughly 3% to 4% — of global greenhouse gas emissions, African countries are among those most exposed to climate impacts and least equipped to prepare for natural disasters. When droughts escalate into emergencies, limited infrastructure, sparse health services and far-flung settlements complicate response, leaving families to make impossible choices about food, water and movement.
Today’s unfolding drought in Kenya’s northeast follows the same unforgiving logic. As water points dry up and pasture disappears, animals weaken quickly. Livestock losses are both economic and nutritional shocks, stripping households of income and protein. In the worst-hit areas, officials report increases in child wasting — a symptom of acute malnutrition that can have life-long consequences if untreated.
Across the border, the humanitarian picture in Somalia underscores how swiftly drought can unravel lives. More than 3 million people have left their homes in search of aid and water, crowding into displacement camps where resources are stretched and the threat of disease grows. Aid workers in Baidoa report families rationing small portions to last the day. The crisis demands speed: in previous drought cycles, delays in mobilizing assistance have translated into avoidable hunger and preventable deaths, while timely funding and scaled-up aid have helped halt slide-to-famine trajectories.
Meanwhile, the scientific signal is clear. Warmer seas and shifting atmospheric patterns are scrambling historic seasons across the Horn of Africa. Communities that once navigated predictable cycles of wet and dry are now contending with extremes at both ends — sudden, destructive storms and unyielding drought. In recent years, the alternation of floods and droughts has eroded soils, undermined water systems and chipped away at the buffers that help families bridge a failed harvest or a lost calf.
That reality places a premium on early action. While the immediate priority is lifesaving assistance where hunger and wasting are rising, the trajectory of the crisis also hinges on preparedness — the ability to anticipate shocks and protect livelihoods before losses cascade. The 2020–2023 drought offers a stark reference point: a predicted famine was averted in Somalia when international aid surged early and at scale. The same blend of urgency and focus will be pivotal now across drought-stricken counties in Kenya and in neighboring countries staring down the same parched horizon.
In Mandera and elsewhere, communities are watching the skies while scanning shrinking water points. For pastoralists and farmers who anchor the region’s food systems, the outcome of the next seasons will be decisive. But the physics of a warming climate are already reshaping the baseline. Without sustained support to weather the current emergency and to strengthen resilience between shocks, the Horn of Africa’s cycle of crisis will only tighten, exacting higher costs on people who have contributed least to the problem yet stand on its front lines.
By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
