ADDIS ABABA – In the ever-evolving geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia stands firm in its ambition to secure access to the sea. Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, the head of Ethiopian National Defense Forces, recently vocalized this aspiration, highlighting its significance at the celebration of the 129th anniversary of the Adowa Victory. His statements may kindle further diplomatic tensions within the region. Why is Ethiopia so steadfast in its pursuit of a coastline, and what implications does this hold for its neighbors?

At the core of Ethiopia’s quest is the persistent belief that the nation’s absence from the Red Sea’s littoral community is ‘unjust.’ Does this exclusion limit Ethiopia’s economic growth and global trade potential? The international community, as Birhanu indicates, now sees Ethiopia’s desire as justified—a stance that bolsters its diplomatic clout. In his words, “It is only a matter of time before we become a member of the Red Sea community.”

Anecdotes of Ethiopia’s historical resilience echo as Birhanu mentions, “We are not preparing for minor disturbances; we are preparing to defend against external aggression.” This assertion reflects a deep commitment not just to maritime access but to safeguarding national interests through diplomacy rather than conflict. An army poised for defense and deterrence, he believes, is the bedrock of peace.

Yet, Ethiopia’s aspirations are met with notable resistance. Recently, Egypt’s Foreign Minister, Badr Abdel-Atty, alongside Eritrea’s President, Isaias Afwerki, reaffirmed their stance against involvement from non-littoral states in the Red Sea’s security and governance. How do Ethiopia’s diplomatic actions resonate amidst this solid Tripartite alliance formed by Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia? The alliance indeed poses a significant challenge for Ethiopia’s maritime ambition.

Reflecting on the Tripartite summit of 2024, one wonders how regional policies might evolve. The initial meeting of the tripartite ministerial committee in Cairo set a clear tone. Abdel-Atty declared unequivocally that Egypt and Eritrea would not tolerate any military or naval adventurism by non-coastal states in the Mediterranean corridor. For Somalia, a nation striving to cement its sovereignty, the stakes are equally high.

But consider this: Ethiopia’s strategic move with North Western State of Somalia, an accord designed to gain a foothold—a 20-kilometer stretch of the Red Sea, in exchange for recognizing North Western State of Somalia’s independence—sparked a diplomatic kerfuffle. Somalia swiftly condemned this agreement, seeking international support to annul it. How does this impasse reflect the precarious balance of power and recognition in regional politics?

In a surprising turn, Turkey mediated, paving the way for dialogue—a reminder that in diplomacy, sometimes unexpected players can become peacemakers.