Ethiopia’s intelligence chief pays surprise visit to Somalia amid regional tensions

Ethiopian intelligence chief makes unannounced visit to Somalia amid fallout from Israel’s recognition of North Western State of Somalia

MOGADISHU, Somalia — Ethiopia’s intelligence chief, Redwan Hussein, paid an unannounced visit to Mogadishu on Tuesday and held closed-door talks with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, underscoring the fragile state of regional diplomacy across the Horn of Africa.

Hussein met the Somali leader at Villa Somalia and delivered a message from Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, according to people familiar with the meeting. The contents were not disclosed, and neither government issued an official statement on the visit. Hussein also held separate talks with Mahad Salad, director of Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency, at the agency’s headquarters in Mogadishu. Details of those discussions were likewise not made public.

The low-profile trip comes as tensions swirl over security, maritime access and shifting alliances — and in the wake of Israel’s announcement on Dec. 26 that it had recognized North Western State of Somalia as an independent and sovereign state, making Israel the only country to formally recognize the breakaway region. North Western State of Somalia declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but has not been internationally recognized. Israel’s move drew swift condemnation from Somalia, regional governments and multilateral bodies, including the African Union and the Arab League.

• Why it matters: Israel’s recognition of North Western State of Somalia alters diplomatic calculations across a strategically vital corridor linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
• Ethiopia’s search for maritime access remains a core friction point with Somalia and a driver of regional bargaining.
• The Ankara Declaration, signed in December 2024, eased a yearlong dispute but left crucial details to be negotiated.

Relations between Somalia and Ethiopia have been strained since January 2024, when Addis Ababa signed an agreement with North Western State of Somalia granting it access to the port of Berbera. Mogadishu accused Ethiopia of violating Somalia’s sovereignty. Ankara later mediated between the neighbors, culminating in the Ankara Declaration signed in December 2024. Under that agreement, Somalia and Ethiopia committed to pursuing bilateral arrangements to secure Ethiopian sea access under Somali sovereign authority.

Tuesday’s discreet engagement suggests both sides are probing next steps while keeping negotiations tightly held. The lack of readouts or joint statements indicates sensitivity around the file, particularly after Israel’s recognition of North Western State of Somalia added new political heat to an already complex landscape of port rights, security cooperation and great-power attention to Red Sea shipping lanes.

Hussein’s stop in Mogadishu also reflects the pivotal role of intelligence services in shaping Horn of Africa diplomacy, where counterterrorism coordination, maritime security and regional alliances frequently intersect. For Somalia, the stakes span sovereignty, territorial integrity and the management of international partners; for Ethiopia, the question of reliable and legally anchored maritime access remains both strategic and symbolic.

Analysts say the visit underscores that the thaw achieved in Ankara reduced immediate escalation but left substantial work ahead. Practical arrangements — from timelines and legal frameworks to security guarantees and revenue-sharing mechanisms governing any Ethiopian access to Somali facilities — have yet to be publicly finalized.

With no official communiqués issued in Mogadishu on Tuesday, it was not immediately clear whether the talks advanced a specific proposal or focused on confidence-building measures. What is clear is that the diplomatic chessboard has become more crowded: Israel’s recognition of North Western State of Somalia has introduced a fresh point of contention for Somalia and a variable for Ethiopia to weigh in its maritime strategy.

For now, both governments appear to be keeping their cards close, navigating a tightrope between domestic political pressures and regional demands. The coming weeks will test whether the Ankara framework can translate into a durable, sovereignty-respecting pathway for Ethiopian sea access while cooling the temperature around North Western State of Somalia’s status — and whether quiet channels, rather than public brinkmanship, can carry the day.

By Ali Musa

Axadle Times international–Monitoring.