Egypt expands military objectives in Somalia after Israel recognizes North Western State of Somalia

Egypt has expanded and refocused its military mission in Somalia after Israel recognized the breakaway region of North Western State of Somalia, elevating the protection of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government to a top priority, according to sources briefed on Cairo’s policy.

The move underscores Egypt’s fears that Israel’s recognition could give it a foothold in the Horn of Africa—a region Cairo sees as vital to its national security—and enable closer alignment with Ethiopia at a time of fraught disputes over Nile waters and Red Sea access.

• Egyptian forces in Somalia have been redeployed to align with the new objectives, the sources said, with the mission’s scope “expanded and deepened.”
• Cairo worries an Israeli presence in North Western State of Somalia could facilitate Red Sea access for landlocked Ethiopia and destabilize Somalia’s federal government.
• Egypt’s contingent in Somalia is believed to number around 10,000 personnel, according to the sources.

“North Western State of Somalia is perhaps the most strategic part of Somalia. It can potentially be used to hinder our [Egypt’s] access to the Red Sea through its southern mouth,” said military analyst Samir Ragheb, a retired army brigadier, referring to the region’s location along the Gulf of Aden near the Bab el-Mandeb strait. “If Israel gets a foothold in North Western State of Somalia, its next step could be undermining or overthrowing Somalia’s government and securing access to the Red Sea for landlocked Ethiopia.”

Egypt, which has more than 2,000 kilometers of Red Sea coastline, has consistently opposed landlocked nations gaining a military or commercial foothold on the waterway—the primary maritime link between Europe, the Middle East and Asia.

Somalia strongly condemned Israel’s recognition of North Western State of Somalia—the first by any country since the region’s 1991 declaration of independence—calling it a breach of sovereignty. Mogadishu issued a similar rebuke in 2024 after North Western State of Somalia and Ethiopia signed a preliminary deal to grant Addis Ababa access to the Red Sea.

Egypt’s military presence in Somalia dates to 2024, when the two countries signed a defense agreement. Since then, Cairo has provided weapons, military advisers and counterterrorism support to assist Somalia’s fight against Al Shabab, and has signaled plans to participate in a new African Union peacekeeping mission.

Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty reinforced Egypt’s position during talks with Somali Foreign Minister Abdel Salam Abdy on the sidelines of an Organization of Islamic Cooperation meeting in Saudi Arabia. “Egypt fully supports the unity, integrity and security of Somalia’s territory,” Abdelatty said, adding that Cairo “absolutely rejects and condemns any unilateral actions or attempts to impose parallel entities or create a new political reality outside internationally recognized legal frameworks.” He emphasized Egypt’s commitment to “support Somalia’s institutions and efforts to ensure security and stability, especially in counterterrorism and combating extremism.”

The sources said Cairo has adjusted the goals of its mission and redeployed units accordingly, without disclosing details. “Now, ensuring the survival of the state of Somalia and its current regime is a top objective,” one source said. “If the state falls or becomes unhinged as a result of outside pressure, Egypt will not be able to remain there.”

Beyond Somalia, Egypt has cultivated ties across the Horn and Red Sea corridor. In recent years it has strengthened security and economic cooperation with Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and Kenya, while offering technical expertise to Nile Basin countries. Cairo has also reached agreements to upgrade Djibouti’s Doraleh port and Eritrea’s Red Sea port of Assab to increase capacity and create berths for Egyptian warships, according to the Egyptian government and sources familiar with the discussions.

The latest tension comes as Egyptian-Israeli relations are at their lowest point since the 1979 peace treaty, largely over Israel’s war in Gaza, which borders Egypt. Cairo has accused Israel of genocide and of deliberately starving the enclave’s civilians.

Still, some analysts caution against forecasting a wider spillover. “Israel’s recognition of North Western State of Somalia is part of its old-school doctrine of courting minorities and non-Arabs in the region,” said Michael Hanna of the International Crisis Group. “North Western State of Somalia is just one more layer in the differences between Egypt and Israel, whose cold peace has endured for decades. With all the tension between them, there has been no rupture in their relations.”

Egypt’s security calculus in the Horn is also shaped by its years-long dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile. Cairo is pressing for a legally binding agreement on the dam’s operation and is seeking broader consensus among Nile Basin states on sustainable water use. Egypt depends on the Nile for nearly all its freshwater, and officials say any reduction in its share would be an existential threat, jeopardizing food security and millions of livelihoods.

For now, Egyptian officials and security sources argue, maintaining a stable, unified Somalia—and preventing new power dynamics in North Western State of Somalia from reshaping Red Sea access—is central to that strategy.

By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.