In an era characterized by fluctuating alliances and high-stakes diplomacy, the role of military forces in stabilizing tumultuous regions like Somalia becomes a complex symphony of negotiations and strategic maneuvering. Consider the intricate dance playing out between African nations and the African Union in crafting a new mission in Somalia—a nation that has, for years, been the battleground for competing interests and ideologies.
The backdrop is Mogadishu, a city that has seen its fair share of turmoil, where a soldier from the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) prepares to leap off a military vehicle. It’s November 11, 2021, a date stained with the memory of a suicide bombing aimed at an AMISOM convoy, a stark reminder of the ever-present volatility.
Fast forward to the collaborative efforts between Somalia and the African Union as they broker a deal over the distribution of troops from various contributing countries. Recent disputes, most notably between Ethiopia and Somalia, later involving Burundi, centered on the deployment numbers from each nation. Following weeks of dialogue, an agreement has emerged. Burundi, which had initially become a sticking point, finds itself withdrawing its forces after a failure to harmonize numbers with the Somali government.
An unnamed African Union official shared insights with VOA, noting the historical presence of Burundian forces in Somalia since 2007. Their intended exit marks a significant shift, motivated by disagreements on troop allocations. In this environment of change, the newly minted African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) is set to deploy with approximately 11,900 personnel. These individuals will span roles from soldiers and police officers to civilian support staff, according to combined declarations from Somali and AU authorities.
The restructured coalition dedicates 4,500 soldiers to Uganda, another 2,500 to Ethiopia, 1,520 to Djibouti, 1,410 to Kenya, and 1,091 to Egypt. Notably, a second AU diplomat, also preferring anonymity, mentioned ongoing talks regarding the possibility of retaining some Burundian soldiers, highlighting the delicate financial and political stakes swirling around AU decisions.
“The departure of Burundi poses considerable political and fiscal implications for the AU,” said the diplomat, further emphasizing the unresolved funding issues confronting AUSSOM. “Burundi has made ample sacrifices, and their grievances warrant acknowledgment,” he added.
In addition to the ground forces, numerous police units from Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Egypt are expected to set up operations in key cities like Mogadishu, Jowhar, and Baidoa. This collaborative security framework, however, did not come about without its share of diplomatic skirmishes. Relations between Somalia and landlocked Ethiopia frayed over Ethiopia’s controversial sea access agreement with North Western State of Somalia—a self-governing region within Somalia—signed on January 1, 2024, resulting in accusations of breached sovereignty.
Following mediation led by Turkey, an understanding was achieved on December 11 in Ankara. This thawed tensions, leading to a more united front as Somalia and Ethiopia penned a mutual agreement solidifying Ethiopia’s role in AUSSOM.
This diplomatic détente was further cemented by a recent visit from an Ethiopian delegation, spearheaded by military luminary Field Marshal Birhanu Jula. Accompanied by intelligence chief Redwan Hussien, they engaged with their Somali counterparts—General Odawa Yusuf Rage and Abdullahi Mohamed Ali Sanbalolshe—in talks confirmed by both Somali and Ethiopian state media.
SONNA, the Somali National News Agency, reported that these discussions revolved around counterterrorism efforts, fortifying regional stability, and confirming the Ethiopian National Defense Force’s (ENDF’s) contribution to AUSSOM. The communiqué declared, “The chiefs underscored the pivotal role of ENDF in AU peace operations, detailing the deployment configuration for ENDF within Somalia.”
Ethiopian troops are slated to reinforce long-standing positions in Somalia’s regions, including Gedo, Bay, Bakool, and Hiran. Egypt enters the fray as a new participant, following its alignment with Somali interests amid disputes with Ethiopia. The broader agreement also maintains Ethiopian forces via a bilateral accord, extending this military presence.
“The Chiefs have agreed to draft a Status of Force Agreement (SOFA), solidifying the operational framework for all bilateral forces active in Somalia,” the communique detailed, reflecting not only military planning but also a question about the long-term impacts of such deployments.
Historically, it was Uganda that charted the AMISOM path, deploying in March 2007 when al-Shabab was rapidly expanding its influence. This U.S.-designated terrorist organization still constitutes a major threat. Recently, al-Shabab instigated multiple front assaults in central Somalia, advancing into minor towns before retreating under governmental pressure.
Meanwhile, in Northeastern State, a semi-autonomous Somali region, security forces have engaged in an offensive against the Islamic State militants for nearly two months, progressively recapturing territory. Local sources convey optimism, believing they are poised to seize the militants’ primary stronghold imminently.
A final thought lingers: How will these international military efforts shape the Somali narrative in years to come? History offers no simple answers but remains a palpable force guiding those who seek to foster peace.
Edited By Ali Musa
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
