Gulf crisis deepens as UN warns of mass displacement in Iran and tankers burn off Iraq
The United Nations’ refugee agency warned that as many as 3.2 million people in Iran have been displaced since the war began almost two weeks ago, as fresh maritime attacks sent oil prices surging back above $100 a barrel and widened fears of a prolonged global energy shock.
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“This figure is likely to continue rising as hostilities persist, marking a worrying escalation in humanitarian needs,” the UN High Commissioner for Refugees said, citing preliminary assessments based on uprooted households.
In the latest escalation at sea, two tankers were ablaze in Iraqi waters, according to images verified by Reuters and filmed from the shore near the port of Basra. Hours earlier, three other ships had been struck in the Gulf. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claimed responsibility for at least one of those attacks — a Thai bulk carrier that was set on fire after the vessel allegedly ignored orders — while a separate container ship reported being hit by an unknown projectile near the United Arab Emirates, a regional maritime security authority said.
The war, launched by the United States and Israel nearly a fortnight ago, has killed around 2,000 people and triggered the biggest disruption to global energy supplies since the 1970s. UNICEF said more than 1,100 children have been killed or injured.
Regional spillover intensified as Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, said the military had been instructed to expand operations in Lebanon after Hezbollah fired a heavy barrage of rockets overnight. Katz warned Lebanese President Joseph Aoun that if Beirut could not halt Hezbollah attacks, Israel “would do it ourselves,” his office said.
Iran signaled it would continue to pressure global markets, vowing to block tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most vital energy chokepoint — until U.S.-Israeli attacks cease and ruling out talks with Washington. Drones were reported over Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE, Bahrain and Oman, undermining U.S. and Israeli claims to have knocked out much of Iran’s long-range arsenal.
The economic fallout rippled across the Gulf. Citibank said it would temporarily close branches in the UAE a day after Iran warned it considered banks legitimate targets and told residents to stay 1,000 meters away from them. HSBC shut branches in Qatar.
The International Energy Agency announced a coordinated release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves — nearly half from the United States — in an effort to cool prices. But the move could take months to execute and would cover only about three weeks of crude that typically flows through the blockaded strait.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly sought to calm markets, insisting the war will be over soon and price spikes short-lived. At a campaign-style rally in Kentucky, he said, “You never like to say too early you won. We won,” adding, “In the first hour it was over.” He has not detailed how hostilities would end or how the strait would be reopened. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran’s leadership remains intact and not at imminent risk of collapse, according to sources.
Tehran, for its part, has framed its strategy as a drawn-out economic confrontation. A military spokesperson said nations should prepare for oil at $200 a barrel due to instability caused by the United States. Iran also claimed strikes on fuel tanks in Bahrain, while drones hit oil storage facilities at Oman’s Salalah port. Saudi Arabia said it intercepted multiple drones headed toward its Shaybah oilfield.
With shipping lanes in peril, humanitarian needs spiking and financial pressures mounting, the conflict’s front lines now extend from the Levant to the world’s energy markets — and any path to de-escalation remains as contested as the waters of the Gulf.
By Abdiwahab Ahmed
Axadle Times international–Monitoring.
