Erdogan alone within the battle for his survival

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Born 1954 in Kasimpasa, Istanbul.

Married and has two sons.

Became mayor of Istanbul in 1994 as a member of the Welfare Party.

The Constitutional Court banned the Welfare Party in 1998. Erdogan was sentenced to 10 months in jail for non secular incitement.

Founded the get together AKP (Justice and Development Party – Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi) in 2001. Won the election in 2002, and was capable of turn into Prime Minister after the by-elections in 2003.

Elected to run for president, receiving 52 p.c of the vote within the 2014 election.

The presidential energy was strengthened after the constitutional modification in 2019.

Source: NE, The New York Times

The messages from Ankara are powerful on Sweden and Finland, and on the United States and NATO. The calls for come from 68-year-old Erdogan, who has been a political power since 1994 and led the nation since 2003. He sees himself as a father of the nation, the voice of the weak and he reaches a hope for a stronger Turkey regionally and on the earth.

So did massive elements of the world round him.

But that picture has fallen, blackened and disappeared.

And it is partly a thriller, or the ability has merely corrupted.

– At the identical time as he has made himself stronger formally, he has made himself weaker informally. He has disagreed with a number of of the teams and establishments that supported him, says Klas Grinell, who’s director of the Center for European Studies on the University of Gothenburg.

Risk of cracking

The Swedish diplomat Olof Ehrenkrona additionally sees a onerous floor that may crackle.

– It is a crystalline energy construction, it is rather onerous, but in addition very brittle. When it bursts, it bursts into very many items, says Ehrenkrona concerning the man of energy and the politician Erdogan.

But to know Erdogan, who based the AKP, Justice and Development Party, requires perception into his background and the Turkish energy society he got here to problem.

Erdogan was born in a poor neighborhood in town of Istanbul. The biographer states that he was a market salesman to improve his money concurrently he made a profession as a semi-professional soccer participant. This in a rustic the place the ability group got here from the legacy of Kemal Atatürk, who within the Nineteen Twenties and 30s modernized and secularized the remnants of the previous Ottoman Empire. The Kemalists managed massive elements of the so-called deep state: navy, authorized system, college.

An object of hatred

The Islamist Erdogan was an object of hatred for most of the Kemalists. And he was imprisoned when he was mayor when he recited the dictates “The mosques are our barracks, the believers are our soldiers and minarets are our weapons”.

Erdogan was himself a political prisoner, Ehrenkrona states. Once launched, he took over the management of the get together that received the 2002 election, and he himself stated he wouldn’t repeat the makes an attempt to persecute political opponents.

Prime Minister Erdogan intensified contacts with the EU for membership, opened up the rights and languages ​​of the Kurdish individuals, and invested in infrastructure tasks and help for the big inhabitants dwelling in rural poverty.

– They tried to create a fashionable variant of a Christian Democratic get together, however with a Muslim contact, says Ehrenkrona, who amongst different issues was an adviser to the then Foreign Minister Carl Bildt (M).

– Erdogan gave the poor and underprivileged a voice. Turkey has massive cities with a rich elite, however a countryside that’s enormously poor, Ehrenkrona continues.

The apparent chief

In the 2007 and 2011 elections, the AKP obtained nearly 50 p.c of the vote, Erdogan being the plain and unthreatened chief.

During a go to to Stockholm in November 2013, with Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt (M), the roughly 185-centimeter-tall Erdogan confidently waved away all criticism, and was even praised by the Prime Minister. Back dwelling in Turkey, Erdogan challenged the navy and the judiciary, and he selected to push by way of a controversial legislation that allowed the carrying of headscarves.

The basically vital concern made secular chemists livid.

Every from time to time, Erdogan started to alter. Corruption allegations towards, amongst others, his youngsters, energy struggles and trials, and elevated political isolation after he cleared out a number of kin led him to perfection of energy: the authoritarian chief.

He turned utterly towards the Kurds, and with the help of the navy, selected to assault Kurdish teams. Free media have been silenced, regime critics have been imprisoned, democratic rights have been curtailed or utterly violated.

Fighting for all times

Erdogan, who based on get together statutes may now not be allowed to be prime minister, selected to be elected president in 2015. To then demand constitutional modifications to strengthen the president’s energy – which handed.

Restrictions on human rights, assaults on Kurdish teams and media censorship intensified.

In addition, there are efforts within the civil warfare in Syria, as properly as an try at a coup in 2016, the place Erdogan identified the previous companion Gülenrörelsen as responsible.

Diplomat Ingmar Karlsson, certainly one of Sweden’s foremost analysts of Turkey, says that Erdogan will not be simply preventing for his political life.

– He can also be afraid for his personal life, says Karlsson who states that the authoritarian chief is aware of the story: earlier leaders have been killed after coups.

Questioned inheritance

But Erdogan’s political legacy may also be questioned. He has been praised internationally for vital financial progress, particularly among the many underprivileged, however the query is whether or not it actually has bearing:

– Many understand that you simply received one thing from him. But Turkey has gone from nearly no non-public lending to very excessive non-public lending for, amongst different issues, housing and automobiles. In a means, one can say that the individuals have been deceived and mortgaged themselves. It turns into clear now when the forex falls and the mortgage economic system collapses, says Klas Grinell on the University of Gothenburg.

And simply as Russian President Vladimir Putin has chosen a brutal however lonely management type, so Erdogan has turn into more and more lonely. The feeling of being persecuted by the surface world, conspiracy theories and concern has made him isolate himself.

So what’s one of the best factor that Erdogan has performed as a politician?

Klas Grinell thinks.

– Yes, it will be that to start with he created a deeper democratic anchor. Many believed that this could imply democratic progress. But it was damaged. Had he misplaced the election in 2011, he would have been seen as certainly one of the good statesmen within the early 2000s.

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