How will the climate goals in the Paris Agreement 2015 be achieved if the minerals needed for energy conversion are not available in sufficient quantity? It’s a real headache and that’s why the International Energy Agency is ringing alarm bells.
To become a good low-carbon student, you must already want, but also have the means. If this is not possible due to a shortage of raw materials, there is a risk that international climate ambitions will be rapidly revised downwards. It is on this theme that the International Energy Agency (IEA) is now calling on states. It is important, says the organization, that they consult together if they want to guarantee their mineral supply tomorrow, especially those that are necessary to build electric cars, solar cells and wind turbines to name just a few.
The need varies for each technology. To be effective, batteries require lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese or even graphite. Rare earths, a group of 17 metals, are needed to build magnets in special wind turbines. When it comes to copper, we need it as soon as we talk about electricity. The IEA sums it up with these figures: an onshore wind turbine needs nine times more minerals than a gas plant of equivalent size, an electric vehicle six times more than a petrol model.
Mining production will not be able to meet demand in 2030
Demand is already very strong and should explode within ten years. The supply gap is likely to widen more and more for some minerals. For example, the IEA explains, “in a scenario that meets the climate targets set out in the Paris Agreement, existing reserves and ongoing mining projects could only meet half of the estimated cobalt needs and lithium by 2030”.
Questions about the availability of materials are linked to its uneven distribution. Three quarters of the supply of minerals necessary for the energy transition is concentrated in a handful of countries, unlike gas or oil which is better distributed on the planet. For example, the DRC supplied 70% of cobalt mining production in China, 60% of rare earth metals.
Energy conversion can be longer and more expensive than expected
The issues are also justified in view of the reduction in investment in certain mining sectors, and the latency periods between exploration and production – often between 10 and 20 years – make it difficult to catch up. Not investing or choosing the wrong goal is risking a longer and more expensive transition, reminds the International Energy Agency. As another example, the price of batteries would increase by 6% if the price of lithium or nickel doubled.
If states do not clarify their energy ambitions, future mining investments may not be appropriate, warns the IEA. Recycling and technical research to find substitute metals are ways, but may not be the only ones, experts warn.
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