The Republic of South Sudan’s political baseline was established in tribal basis from the beginning by the former Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) political elites; so this is an anxious footstep.
If there are no consultative corrective advices from the previous experienced countries such as Rwanda, Northern Ireland, East Timor and the likes to curb the current crisis, South Sudanese will possibly be in the verge of vulnerability.
This will lead the country to the current status of Somalia. The signal of the rebellion that started as political turmoil between the two main rivals – President Salva Kiir and Dr. Riek Machar in 2013 was uncontrollable because the leaders were keen for leadership.
The groups of warlords, veterans and former rebels who consider themselves to be liberators who never witnessed to lead democratically except firing guns to the enemy have been ensnared to find successful leadership. The only tactics for them to ensure that their leadership is sustained is to keep the name – SPLM/A alive.
This name (SPLM/A) would have been changed after the South Sudanese achieved their independence but was kept existed as a tool for the elites to enrich themselves to continuing grasping more wealth. This tactic was successful and resulted into disappearance of $4 billion US dollar sometimes in 2012.
The party has committed untold stories during struggle and after the country gains her independence from Sudan under President Bashir in 2011. Unknown gunmen are tactical forces funded by some known elements within the ruling party to silence the activists and key politicians from voicing the issues, which are affecting the citizens.
To my analysis, South Sudanese are war-liked people with hidden intention to seek unhealthy wealth through shortcutting leadership.
If you look into the current political game thoroughly, you will find out that the elites that dominated the system are influencing their tribesmen to launch war against other so that individuals (elites) gain from the move.
For instance, President Kiir has painted his tribal government, which he serves as the president with Defense Minister, Chief of General Staff of the Army, and other key ministries from his tribesmen to make sure that an unhealthy sustainable leadership is maintained.
The clandestine inner architect of the club known as Jieng Council of Elders (JCE) who have been driving Salva Kiir’s boat to cross the Nile are seen to be the main Agents of destruction in South Sudan.
In other hand, Dr. Machar, the leader of Sudan People Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLM-IO) has forced to bush by Kiir’s militia and instantly pressed wrong gear in high-speed boat without an Assistant except white army who’s their respond is to defend their children from government aggression.
Machar who is in right trail is a conservative leader that rarely seeks an advice from his fellow politician. This is very big flaw to his system. Immature politicians that cannot even offer a piece of advice to him concerning all tribes’ inclusive leadership follow Machar. He labeled his movement as a movement that aim to introduce democracy but more plutocratic.
For instance, Machar made an executive order that made his wife – Angelina Teny to be the Chairperson of Defense and Security Committee in his movement. These positions in the hierarchy of his movement made his wife to be the second most powerful person next to him. This alone tells the true color of Dr. Machar.
Both leaders are very weak and misleader to their companies. All them are filled with jealousy, even I don’t think that, They have a plan to bring up good Boys that will be South Sudan’s future leaders in case of uncertainties such as death & aging.
Leaders are measured not because of the numbers of the citizens that they have killed but are measured by the numbers of people they have empowered to come to the leadership position.
Both leaders fear to empower others to leadership positions because they know the crimes they have had committed. These push them to decide that the only way to seal the crimes, which they have committed, is to have lengthy stay in leadership positions so that they are immune to resist any pressure.
Due to lack of trust from the main rivals, South Sudan conflict will take longer than usual. It will grow unimproved from worse to the worst. Some of the indication that shows the fretful situation includes the number of warlords who are forming their own movements.
All these undergoing movements will intensively fuel the hatred and mistrust among the tribes and will possibly end-up into sectionalism movements. The sectionalism movement that also refers to the restriction of the interests to one-man rule will divide the country into Dinka, Nuer and Equatoria movements.
The threat is that the international community will not recognize the three big tribes to separate and build Dinka, Nuer or Equatoria nations. To the extend, all Equatoria community will follow Thomas Cirilo Swaka, Nuer will follow Dr. Machar and Dinka for sure will follow President Kiir. But, because of the covert greediness that I have observed, an internal power struggle will ensue at anytime on either party especially among Machar or Kiir’s camp to overthrow these two leaders.
In summary, South Sudan peace will not materialize because of the following reasons.
- Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) drives the system in government of South Sudan as front end and United States of America as back end.
- The people of South Sudan are confined by their leaders not to speak out the truth simply because if someone speaks the truth to either party, the leaders will automatically label the particular citizen as an opposition to the system. It’s surprise that the leaders don’t even learn from the past. For instance, prophet Moses was accepting piece of advice from Jethro, his father-in-law during the exodus in the desert. This is worthwhile to learn.
- The two main rivals face challenges in administering the country. President kiir is driven by JCE whose many of them are warlords and ethnocentric minded while Dr. Machaar is self-directive conservative human that never consider other person’s advice. Even in his own circle, no one knows where is going.
- The general public is engulfed by hatred, which was planted into them by the leaders. This will take time for the tribes to come to sincere reconciliation, as no tribe would surrender to one another in the name of peace. This creates deep-rooted hatred among the young generation because they were raised in the war-torn where the survival of fittest is practiced. You can take good indication from the names’ especially Nuers & Dinka (Riak, Chan,Arok, Wuor ,Chok,Buoth). These names are good indicator that people were born war.
- The G-10 known as formers detainees pretend to speak the truth but their political interest is not clear. Their ambition is to look for some loopholes to secure a system where they will grasp to the final and leave the game for investments. The same thing applies to the current Vice President of South Sudan – Gen. Taban Deng Gai. Taban is originally a brilliance business-oriented person. It was unfortunate for him to run a government with Dr. Machar who was so conservative who couldn’t allow him to grasps what he can. This truly disappointed Taban and led him to join President Kiir’s camp to recover the money that he lost during his tenure with Machar in the bush. In my view, Taban will briefly stay in the Kiir’s camp for while and disappear as time goes by when the government will run out of Fuel.
Based on the above obstacles, South Sudan peace will not easily be achieved because the region has an interest. The key players in the game are so many. There is no game in the world where a referee will serve as a player.
This is what happen in South Sudan where some member of IGAD countries who broker the peace deal between the rivals mediate and fight on the side of other party at the same time. The best example here is Uganda.
Very soon other countries from the region will involve and their involvement will dangerously destroy South Sudan and later destroy the region. Most probably, South Sudan crisis will likely affect Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Egypt and Sudan.
Above all, South Sudan problem will be resolved unless the oil that exists in the country is over. “It is big curse to live in land with abundance of natural resources without wisdom” (Dr Mensa of Ghana).
The remedial solution for South Sudan’s crisis is only that , the nation should be put under UN trusteeship because it will take long time for these warring parties to come to compromise because the UN would install democratic system though the resources will be wasted it will be better than this.
Axadle International Monitoring – Sudan
The author is a lecturer from Gambella University,Ethiopia and currently undertaking his postgraduate studies in Arbaminch University, Institute of Technology. He can be reach via: email@example.com