The World Bank lowers its economic outlook for Mali. According to a note entitled “Strengthening resilience in times of uncertainty”, which was published in April and published this weekend, Malian growth should stagnate in 2022. It may even be negative. Two factors explain these poor results: the expansion of armed violence and ECOWAS ‘financial sanctions.
Since 2012, the number of deaths in Mali has quadrupled and violent incidents have multiplied by six.
Only in the north has insecurity spread to the center of the country, a crucial agricultural region, and more recently to certain economic centers in the south. The World Bank estimates that the crisis cost 23% of Mali’s gross domestic product (GDP) between 2012 and 2018.
The affected regions are thus losing jobs outside agriculture. Households are more and more dependent on small-scale self-sufficient agriculture, which in itself is undermined by land pressure and climate change.
In 2021, the poverty rate will reach 44.4%, two points more than in 2019.
Insecurity also affects the economies of local communities that no longer provide basic social services. In the Kidal region, for example, the vaccination rate has dropped to less than 1%. The Malian state, for its part, has more than doubled its military spending in ten years, to the detriment of development spending.
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Another negative factor is the ECOWAS sanctions. The World Bank estimates that maintaining them for two or more quarters risks throwing the country back into recession.