Tanzanians go to the polls on Wednesday, October 28 to elect their president, their deputies and their local councilors in a socio-political context exacerbated by the inclinations of authoritarianism of the outgoing administration. President John Magufuli’s five – year period of oppression on the one hand and the chaotic control of the Covid – 19 pandemic on the other have undermined Tanzanian democracy, according to Fergus Kell, a specialist in the country and researcher with the idea of Chatham House, based in London. . Interview.
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RFI: Who are the main figures in the election in Tanzania on Wednesday?
Fergus Kell: The Electoral Commission of Tanzania has this year approved a total of fifteen candidates to run for the presidency, which will be held on Wednesday at the same time as the parliamentary elections. Among these is the outgoing President John Magufuli, in power since 2015, seeking a different term. He represents the Chama Cha Mapinduzi Party (CCM, Revolutionary Party), in power in Tanzania since independence in 1961. Despite its unusually long life at the helm of the country, the CCM is losing momentum with its share of previously popular votes. from almost 80% in the 1980 presidential election to 68% in 2010 and 58% in 2015, the year of the election of the outgoing head of state. CCM activists are having a hard time loosening their training grip on power, while opposition parties are strengthening their positions within the establishment. The repression of the opposition and the freedoms that marked Magufuli’s first term reflects, in my view, the CCM’s desire to regain its former primacy in political life.
Who are the other candidates?
The Tanzanian presidential election this year is a two-man race. John Magufuli’s main challenger is Tundu Lissu, the leader of the opposition Chadema party. A charismatic politician, Lissu returned home after three years in exile in Belgium, where he fled after a politically motivated assassination attempt. Wounded by 16 bullets, the man had to undergo several surgeries and undergo a long convalescence abroad. This opponent’s candidacy is supported by the very popular ACT-Wazalendo party. In return, Chadema de Lissu supports the ACT candidate in the presidential race for the archipelago Zanzibar. Remember that this archipelago consisting of the islands of Zanzibar and Pemba merged with Tanzania in 1964, while enjoying an autonomous status with its own president, government and parliament. As for the rest of the suitors, most, according to sources, are artificial candidates created by the government to sow disagreement within the opposition.
What were the successes and failures of Magufuli’s five year period?
In 2015, populist John Magufuli created a surprise in 2015 by winning the CCM’s internal primary to succeed the outgoing president Jakaya Kikwete. A discreet activist, almost unknown to the public, he was a consensus candidate supported by the various factions that make up the old party of the revolution. Twice at the head of the Ministry of Public Works, the man had gained a reputation for a go-getter, hence probably his nickname “bulldozer”. Elected to the presidency in October 2015, he is credited with fighting corruption and reducing government spending on his priorities. First, he took spectacular initiatives by inviting himself to the offices of the ministries to control the work of the official and drastically reduce the travel of the Tanzanian officials abroad. He himself has so far not made any trip to a western capital. However, these cost-saving measures went hand in hand with the adoption of freedom-of-law laws targeting the media, journalists, NGOs and opponents, many of whom were arrested, prosecuted in court, sometimes simply for questioning state statistical analyzes. Magufuli did not hesitate to use the Cybercrime Act to sentence a man to three years in prison for insulting him on Facebook. Presumably, the last five-year period has seen the Tanzanian democratic space shrink significantly under the repressive zeal of the government, as the country creeps worryingly into authoritarianism.
Fans of the outgoing president highlight the acceleration of economic development during his administration with Tanzania, which this year is participating in “countries with lower middle incomes What economic assessment can we draw from John Magufuli’s presidency?
In fact, the entourage of the outgoing president does not miss an opportunity to remember that Tanzania has joined the category of lower middle-income countries this year without waiting for the 2025 horizon, as planned in the government’s national development plan. . This increase in rank was made possible by the average annual growth of 6% that the country has recorded over the last ten years. Shall we remind you that this period of high growth began under John Magufuli’s predecessor? It also appears that the weakening of the exchange rate between the shilling and the US dollar is not entirely related to this rapid development in the Tanzanian economy. In addition, Dodoma is the financial achievement while welcoming World Bank pointed out that the number of poor in the country has increased from 13 to 14 million due to significant population growth since 2007. Tanzania actually has the worst degree of poverty reduction in the world. Finally, we cannot talk about the government’s economic record without mentioning the government’s ambitious infrastructure policy. While all observers recognize that this country needs to invest in infrastructure projects to support its strong economic growth, donors question the government’s priority for prestigious projects at the expense of infrastructure likely to benefit as many people as possible. The newly edited “Stieglers Gorge” dam, the construction of which was handed over to an Egyptian group apparently without much experience in dams, is one of these prestigious infrastructures. The cost of this project is 66% of the Ministry of Energy’s budget. In addition, these expenses are incurred in connection with a slowdown in economic activity under the influence of the health crisis, which has affected key sectors such as agriculture and, in particular, tourism.
Officially Tanzania “released from Covid “How has the country handled the pandemic?”
In a rather chaotic way. Unlike other large countries in the region such as Kenya, the Tanzanian government has not used generalized containment without a doubt for fear of slowing down economic development and affecting food security. From the moment the cases of Covid-19 began to rise rapidly, the authorities adopted the way in which the pandemic reality was completely denied and from April refused to update the number of cases. The president accused the “imperialists” of importing the disease into his country and urged the sick to resort to prayers to get rid of the virus. In July, the Tanzanian government decided that Covid-19 was no longer present in the country. Those who dare to say the opposite are thrown in jail.
Were the opposition candidates in this socio-political context deeply shaken by disease and the government’s autocratic inclinations able to fight?
No, because throughout the election campaign that has just ended, intimidation, physical attacks, disturbances of all kinds have prevented the opposition candidates from conducting a normal campaign. A significant legislative arsenal has been introduced by the government to hamper opponents’ attempts to meet with voters and organize rallies. Legislation governing open meetings forced opposition candidates to submit a detailed program of their meetings in advance to the authorities, while ruling party candidates were free to arrange unannounced rallies. Upstream, we saw the Electoral Commission disqualify opposition candidates on often biased and light bases. Consequence: 28 candidates for deputation from the power party, CCM, can today be elected to the deputation without having to face any opponents. This raises the question of the composition of the Electoral Commission, whose members are all appointed by the President himself. Finally, the government has also blocked the accreditation of on-site observers, guaranteeing a smooth running of the electoral process. Under these conditions, one can legitimately wonder whether the election can be held freely and without fraud.
Does the opposition have a chance to win the presidential election?
This seems rather unlikely to me despite the very large turnout in the campaign rallies for Tundu Lissu, the main opposition candidate in the presidential election. For now, opinion polls are banned, the assessment of the president’s popularity remains inaccurate. The last poll was conducted in 2018. It reported a popularity rate of 56%, which is a historically low rate for a president. However, a vote in favor of the opposition candidate does not appear to be realistic due to a number of factors ranging from the stranglehold on the media, electoral institutions and the traditional fragmentation of voters in the opposition. The surprise could come from Zanzibar’s archipelago, which is the stronghold of the opposition. The latter victory in Zanzibar will complicate Magufuli’s second term, especially if, according to the ambition he was given, he was tempted to change the constitution in order to run a third term in 2025. He could not do so. does so by mobilizing a two-thirds majority of the votes in its favor, both in the Dodoma Parliament and in the Chamber of Deputies in Zanzibar.
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